Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 15, 2012

Updated: Thu Nov 15 20:31:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 15, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 15, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 15, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 15, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 15, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 15, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 15, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Nov 17, 2012 - Sun, Nov 18, 2012 D6Tue, Nov 20, 2012 - Wed, Nov 21, 2012
D4Sun, Nov 18, 2012 - Mon, Nov 19, 2012 D7Wed, Nov 21, 2012 - Thu, Nov 22, 2012
D5Mon, Nov 19, 2012 - Tue, Nov 20, 2012 D8Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - Fri, Nov 23, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152029
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012
   
   VALID 171200Z - 231200Z
   
   IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE...
   MULTI-STREAM PATTERN WILL EXIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A
   TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED...NRN-STREAM-DOMINANT PATTERN OCCURS
   LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR D3/SAT THROUGH D8/THU...THIS OVERALL PATTERN
   WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENT SFC TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE
   ROCKIES...ALONG WITH REGIONS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY/OCCASIONALLY
   STRONG WINDS ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...CRITICALLY
   LOW RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS AMIDST
   AREAS OF DRY FUELS...AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN MANY
   LOCATIONS SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THERE IS SOME
   CONCERN THAT A RELATIVELY STRONGER...LARGE-SCALE TROUGH COULD EVOLVE
   WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY DOMINANT NRN STREAM OVER PARTS OF THE WRN
   CONUS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AN
   ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON D8/THU. HOWEVER...LARGE DISPERSION
   AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS THREAT PRECLUDES
   THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 11/15/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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