Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 19, 2012

Updated: Mon Nov 19 21:06:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 19, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 19, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 19, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 19, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 19, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 19, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 19, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Nov 21, 2012 - Thu, Nov 22, 2012 D6Sat, Nov 24, 2012 - Sun, Nov 25, 2012
D4Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - Fri, Nov 23, 2012 D7Sun, Nov 25, 2012 - Mon, Nov 26, 2012
D5Fri, Nov 23, 2012 - Sat, Nov 24, 2012 D8Mon, Nov 26, 2012 - Tue, Nov 27, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192104
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012
   
   VALID 211200Z - 271200Z
   
   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
   PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
   SHIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON WED/D3. ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER
   TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PAC NW AND MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN
   PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S/EWD
   ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS/MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH MODERATE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WINDS OCCURRING BOTH AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
   FRONT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
   GENERALLY REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...WED/D3 - THU/D4 -- CNTRL PLAINS...
   BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING NRN PLAINS CYCLONE AND
   ATTENDANT LEE SFC TROUGH...BENEATH A BELT OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE
   WED/EARLY THU...A PERIOD OF MARGINALLY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY
   FAVOR AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS. 
   
   FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THU MORNING...WITH WINDS
   TURNING OUT OF THE N...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING DRY.
   MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
   POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS ON THU...BUT THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS TOO LOW TO
   INTRODUCE PROBABILITIES ATTM ON THU/D4.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 11/19/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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