Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Wed, Nov 21, 2012 - Thu, Nov 22, 2012 | D6 | Sat, Nov 24, 2012 - Sun, Nov 25, 2012 |
| D4 | Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - Fri, Nov 23, 2012 | D7 | Sun, Nov 25, 2012 - Mon, Nov 26, 2012 |
| D5 | Fri, Nov 23, 2012 - Sat, Nov 24, 2012 | D8 | Mon, Nov 26, 2012 - Tue, Nov 27, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 192104 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012 VALID 211200Z - 271200Z A PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE SHIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON WED/D3. ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PAC NW AND MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S/EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS/MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OCCURRING BOTH AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ...WED/D3 - THU/D4 -- CNTRL PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING NRN PLAINS CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT LEE SFC TROUGH...BENEATH A BELT OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE WED/EARLY THU...A PERIOD OF MARGINALLY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY FAVOR AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THU MORNING...WITH WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE N...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING DRY. MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS ON THU...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE PROBABILITIES ATTM ON THU/D4. ..ROGERS.. 11/19/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT