Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 20, 2012

Updated: Tue Nov 20 21:29:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Nov 22, 2012 - Fri, Nov 23, 2012 D6Sun, Nov 25, 2012 - Mon, Nov 26, 2012
D4Fri, Nov 23, 2012 - Sat, Nov 24, 2012 D7Mon, Nov 26, 2012 - Tue, Nov 27, 2012
D5Sat, Nov 24, 2012 - Sun, Nov 25, 2012 D8Tue, Nov 27, 2012 - Wed, Nov 28, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202127
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CST TUE NOV 20 2012
   
   VALID 221200Z - 281200Z
   
   A POTENT SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
   CONUS EARLY THU/D3...AND WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND.
   THIS WILL AID IN DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN DRY NLY FLOW ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A NEARLY ZONAL
   UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME TEMPORARILY ESTABLISHED...BEFORE
   ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD OUT OF THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT
   WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS.
   
   ...THU/D3 -- WRN KS...
   DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR EARLY THU MORNING ACROSS THE
   CNTRL PLAINS. NLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 MPH IN THE WAKE OF
   THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES...RH
   VALUES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE...LEADING TO AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT...ENHANCED BY ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
   THE REGION.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 11/20/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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