Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 21, 2012

Updated: Wed Nov 21 20:29:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 21, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 21, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 21, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 21, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 21, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 21, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 21, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Nov 23, 2012 - Sat, Nov 24, 2012 D6Mon, Nov 26, 2012 - Tue, Nov 27, 2012
D4Sat, Nov 24, 2012 - Sun, Nov 25, 2012 D7Tue, Nov 27, 2012 - Wed, Nov 28, 2012
D5Sun, Nov 25, 2012 - Mon, Nov 26, 2012 D8Wed, Nov 28, 2012 - Thu, Nov 29, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212027
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 PM CST WED NOV 21 2012
   
   VALID 231200Z - 291200Z
   
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ERN CONUS
   FRI/D3...SHIFTING EWD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT WILL DIVE SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
   SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRI/D3...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO
   THESE AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG MIDLEVEL WLYS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN
   HALF OF THE CONUS...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD OUT OF
   THE PAC NW. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...AND IS
   FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH WED/D8.
   
   ...SAT/D4 -- SERN WY...
   STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WLYS AND A DEVELOPING LEE SFC TROUGH OVER THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF
   THE PAC NW...WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS OVER SERN WY. ALTHOUGH
   TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOL...STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
   FAVOR DRYING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SUN/D5 -- ERN NM...SWRN TX PANHANDLE...
   MODERATE MIDLEVEL WLYS WILL SHIFT SWD AS A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
   DEEPENS OVER THE WRN CONUS SUN/D5. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEP BOUNDARY
   LAYER MIXING AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A LEE
   SFC TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY DRY AIR MASS /PW
   AOB 0.15 INCH/ WILL BE PRESENT...POSSIBLY YIELDING RH VALUES AS LOW
   AS THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THESE CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND W TX.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 11/21/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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