Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 22, 2012

Updated: Thu Nov 22 20:37:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 22, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 22, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 22, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 22, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 22, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 22, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 22, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Nov 24, 2012 - Sun, Nov 25, 2012 D6Tue, Nov 27, 2012 - Wed, Nov 28, 2012
D4Sun, Nov 25, 2012 - Mon, Nov 26, 2012 D7Wed, Nov 28, 2012 - Thu, Nov 29, 2012
D5Mon, Nov 26, 2012 - Tue, Nov 27, 2012 D8Thu, Nov 29, 2012 - Fri, Nov 30, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222036
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CST THU NOV 22 2012
   
   VALID 241200Z - 301200Z
   
   LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION TOWARDS ZONAL
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS BY SUN/D4...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING ERN
   CONUS UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL EMANATE OUT OF THE NRN
   ROCKIES AND SLOWLY DIG SEWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
   MON/D5...DISPLACING A BELT OF MODERATE MIDLEVEL WLYS FARTHER SWD
   ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE ACCOMPANYING THE
   UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...BUT WILL BE
   SHORT-LIVED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS.
   
   ...SAT/D3 -- FAR SERN WY...
   GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ARE FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
   AND STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WLYS. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
   SMALL AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS FAR SERN WY...BUT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE
   LIMITED ATTM BY RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL DAYTIME RH
   VALUES.
   
   ...SAT/D4 -- ERN NM...SWRN TX PANHANDLE...
   THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...IN RESPONSE
   TO A DEEPENING LEE SFC TROUGH...AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   BENEATH STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WLYS...WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
   WIND SPEEDS ACROSS PARTS OF E-CNTRL NM INTO W TX. A VERY DRY AIR
   MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES AOB 0.2
   INCH AND DOWNSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTIVE OF RH VALUES AS LOW AS
   THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THUS...AN ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 11/22/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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