Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Sun, Nov 25, 2012 - Mon, Nov 26, 2012 | D6 | Wed, Nov 28, 2012 - Thu, Nov 29, 2012 |
| D4 | Mon, Nov 26, 2012 - Tue, Nov 27, 2012 | D7 | Thu, Nov 29, 2012 - Fri, Nov 30, 2012 |
| D5 | Tue, Nov 27, 2012 - Wed, Nov 28, 2012 | D8 | Fri, Nov 30, 2012 - Sat, Dec 01, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 232041 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2012 VALID 251200Z - 011200Z A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSES THROUGH THE POLAR JET...WHICH TRANSITIONS FROM A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL ORIENTATION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTEN BY D5/TUE. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES ON D3/SUN AND INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS ON D4/MON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS TX AND MUCH OF THE LWR MS VALLEY ON D4/MON AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON D5/TUE. A LARGE SCALE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FROM THE W COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON D5/TUE TO OVER THE ROCKIES ON D6/WED WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCES THE PACIFIC NW ON D6/WED. COOL TEMPERATURES AND AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE LARGE SCALE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOW. ...D3/SUN - D4/MON: ERN NM/SRN TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS... A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ON D3/SUN...JUST AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED WLY WINDS ACROSS ERN NM...SRN TX PANHANDLE AND TX SOUTH PLAINS. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AMIDST A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT. THUS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA D3/SUN. DRY...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH ENHANCED NWLY/WLY WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN ELEVATED CONDITIONS ON D4/MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAME AREA. ..MOSIER.. 11/23/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT