Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 23, 2012

Updated: Fri Nov 23 20:43:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sun, Nov 25, 2012 - Mon, Nov 26, 2012 D6Wed, Nov 28, 2012 - Thu, Nov 29, 2012
D4Mon, Nov 26, 2012 - Tue, Nov 27, 2012 D7Thu, Nov 29, 2012 - Fri, Nov 30, 2012
D5Tue, Nov 27, 2012 - Wed, Nov 28, 2012 D8Fri, Nov 30, 2012 - Sat, Dec 01, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 232041
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2012
   
   VALID 251200Z - 011200Z
   
   A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
   MID-WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
   POLAR JET...WHICH TRANSITIONS FROM A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL ORIENTATION
   TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTEN BY D5/TUE. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
   EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES ON D3/SUN AND INTO THE
   NRN/CNTRL PLAINS ON D4/MON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS TX AND MUCH OF THE
   LWR MS VALLEY ON D4/MON AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON D5/TUE. A
   LARGE SCALE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD IN THE WAKE OF THIS
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FROM THE W COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON D5/TUE TO
   OVER THE ROCKIES ON D6/WED WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCES
   THE PACIFIC NW ON D6/WED. 
   
   COOL TEMPERATURES AND AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE
   LARGE SCALE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOW.
   
   ...D3/SUN - D4/MON: ERN NM/SRN TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS...
   A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ON
   D3/SUN...JUST AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE
   RESULTANT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED
   WLY WINDS ACROSS ERN NM...SRN TX PANHANDLE AND TX SOUTH PLAINS. DEEP
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AMIDST A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL RESULT
   IN MIN RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT. THUS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA D3/SUN.
   
   DRY...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH ENHANCED NWLY/WLY WINDS WILL ALSO
   RESULT IN ELEVATED CONDITIONS ON D4/MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAME
   AREA.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 11/23/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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