Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 24, 2012

Updated: Sat Nov 24 20:20:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 24, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Mon, Nov 26, 2012 - Tue, Nov 27, 2012 D6Thu, Nov 29, 2012 - Fri, Nov 30, 2012
D4Tue, Nov 27, 2012 - Wed, Nov 28, 2012 D7Fri, Nov 30, 2012 - Sat, Dec 01, 2012
D5Wed, Nov 28, 2012 - Thu, Nov 29, 2012 D8Sat, Dec 01, 2012 - Sun, Dec 02, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 242019
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2012
   
   VALID 261200Z - 021200Z
   
   A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING
   WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN ON D3/MON. WHILE THIS
   OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM THE NRN
   ROCKIES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AS
   AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 
   
   THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN ON
   D5/WED AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
   AFTER D5/WED...A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS WITH SOME
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE
   CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY ON D6/THU AND D7/FRI. 
   
   ...D3/MON: ERN NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS/TRANS-PECOS...
   AN ANTECEDENT DRY ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES
   AROUND 20 PERCENT AND NWLY/WLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 15 TO 20 MPH.
   HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE
   STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO
   LOW TO CONTINUE ANY PROBABILITIES. AS A RESULT...THE MARGINAL
   DELINEATION HAS BEEN DROPPED. ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   THAT DO OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 11/24/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT