Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Mon, Nov 26, 2012 - Tue, Nov 27, 2012 | D6 | Thu, Nov 29, 2012 - Fri, Nov 30, 2012 |
| D4 | Tue, Nov 27, 2012 - Wed, Nov 28, 2012 | D7 | Fri, Nov 30, 2012 - Sat, Dec 01, 2012 |
| D5 | Wed, Nov 28, 2012 - Thu, Nov 29, 2012 | D8 | Sat, Dec 01, 2012 - Sun, Dec 02, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 242019 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2012 VALID 261200Z - 021200Z A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN ON D3/MON. WHILE THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN ON D5/WED AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AFTER D5/WED...A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY ON D6/THU AND D7/FRI. ...D3/MON: ERN NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS/TRANS-PECOS... AN ANTECEDENT DRY ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AND NWLY/WLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO LOW TO CONTINUE ANY PROBABILITIES. AS A RESULT...THE MARGINAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN DROPPED. ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT DO OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. ..MOSIER.. 11/24/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT