Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 25, 2012

Updated: Sun Nov 25 20:24:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 25, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 25, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 25, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 25, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 25, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 25, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 25, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Nov 27, 2012 - Wed, Nov 28, 2012 D6Fri, Nov 30, 2012 - Sat, Dec 01, 2012
D4Wed, Nov 28, 2012 - Thu, Nov 29, 2012 D7Sat, Dec 01, 2012 - Sun, Dec 02, 2012
D5Thu, Nov 29, 2012 - Fri, Nov 30, 2012 D8Sun, Dec 02, 2012 - Mon, Dec 03, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 252023
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
   
   VALID 271200Z - 031200Z
   
   AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ON D3/TUE...THIS PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
   BY AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
   TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
   TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NWRN GULF OF MEXICO
   WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ITS WAKE OVER MUCH OF THE
   CNTRL/ERN CONUS. 
   
   THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL SHIFT EWD...WHILE DE-AMPLIFYING...IN
   RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW ON D4/WED. A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES
   AND INTO THE PLAINS ON D5/THU. THE APPROACH OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD
   ENHANCE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON D4/WED AND D5/THU ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. 
   
   ...D4/WED-D5/THU: NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE...
   LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
   IN A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS AND
   ENHANCED SWLY WINDS OVER THE AREA ON D4/WED. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
   GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING POTENTIAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX
   PANHANDLE ON D5/THU...RESULTING IN ENHANCED SWLY/WLY WINDS OVER THE
   AREA FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH D4/WED AND D5/THU.
   CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY AREAS ATTM BUT SOME
   HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS
   SCENARIO.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 11/25/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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