Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Tue, Nov 27, 2012 - Wed, Nov 28, 2012 | D6 | Fri, Nov 30, 2012 - Sat, Dec 01, 2012 |
| D4 | Wed, Nov 28, 2012 - Thu, Nov 29, 2012 | D7 | Sat, Dec 01, 2012 - Sun, Dec 02, 2012 |
| D5 | Thu, Nov 29, 2012 - Fri, Nov 30, 2012 | D8 | Sun, Dec 02, 2012 - Mon, Dec 03, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 252023 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2012 VALID 271200Z - 031200Z AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ON D3/TUE...THIS PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ITS WAKE OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL SHIFT EWD...WHILE DE-AMPLIFYING...IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW ON D4/WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON D5/THU. THE APPROACH OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON D4/WED AND D5/THU ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...D4/WED-D5/THU: NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE... LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS AND ENHANCED SWLY WINDS OVER THE AREA ON D4/WED. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING POTENTIAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ON D5/THU...RESULTING IN ENHANCED SWLY/WLY WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH D4/WED AND D5/THU. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY AREAS ATTM BUT SOME HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. ..MOSIER.. 11/25/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT