Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Wed, Nov 28, 2012 - Thu, Nov 29, 2012 | D6 | Sat, Dec 01, 2012 - Sun, Dec 02, 2012 |
| D4 | Thu, Nov 29, 2012 - Fri, Nov 30, 2012 | D7 | Sun, Dec 02, 2012 - Mon, Dec 03, 2012 |
| D5 | Fri, Nov 30, 2012 - Sat, Dec 01, 2012 | D8 | Mon, Dec 03, 2012 - Tue, Dec 04, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 262102 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CST MON NOV 26 2012 VALID 281200Z - 041200Z AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN...CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD AND DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING ZONAL BY EARLY D4/THU. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON D4/THU. THE APPROACH OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON D3/WED AND D4/THU ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NE PACIFIC OCEAN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ACTING TO DIRECT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE ENHANCED WLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS ERN WY ON D5/FRI AND D6/SAT. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ...D3/WED-D4/THU: NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODESTLY ENHANCED SWLY/WLY WINDS AT THE BASE OF A LEE TROUGH. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THESE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL RH VALUES BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF ANY CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON BOTH D3/WED AND D4/THU BUT NO AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED ATTM. SOME HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED IF MODEL CONSENSUS/TRENDS RAISE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/OCCURRENCE OF CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS. ..MOSIER.. 11/26/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT