Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 26, 2012

Updated: Mon Nov 26 21:03:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 26, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 26, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 26, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 26, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 26, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 26, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 26, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Nov 28, 2012 - Thu, Nov 29, 2012 D6Sat, Dec 01, 2012 - Sun, Dec 02, 2012
D4Thu, Nov 29, 2012 - Fri, Nov 30, 2012 D7Sun, Dec 02, 2012 - Mon, Dec 03, 2012
D5Fri, Nov 30, 2012 - Sat, Dec 01, 2012 D8Mon, Dec 03, 2012 - Tue, Dec 04, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 262102
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CST MON NOV 26 2012
   
   VALID 281200Z - 041200Z
   
   AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN...CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
   ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD AND DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING ZONAL BY
   EARLY D4/THU. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON D4/THU. THE
   APPROACH OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON
   D3/WED AND D4/THU ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. 
   
   A LARGE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NE PACIFIC
   OCEAN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ACTING TO DIRECT A SERIES OF
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE ENHANCED WLY WINDS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SURFACE WIND
   SPEEDS ACROSS ERN WY ON D5/FRI AND D6/SAT. HOWEVER...COOL
   TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
   
   ...D3/WED-D4/THU: NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE...
   MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODESTLY ENHANCED SWLY/WLY
   WINDS AT THE BASE OF A LEE TROUGH. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
   SUPPORT...THESE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTH OF
   THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
   CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
   CRITICAL RH VALUES BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE LOCATION AND
   STRENGTH OF ANY CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON BOTH D3/WED AND D4/THU BUT NO
   AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED ATTM. SOME HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
   MODEL CONSENSUS/TRENDS RAISE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/OCCURRENCE
   OF CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 11/26/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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