Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 27, 2012

Updated: Tue Nov 27 20:48:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 27, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 27, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 27, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 27, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 27, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 27, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 27, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Nov 29, 2012 - Fri, Nov 30, 2012 D6Sun, Dec 02, 2012 - Mon, Dec 03, 2012
D4Fri, Nov 30, 2012 - Sat, Dec 01, 2012 D7Mon, Dec 03, 2012 - Tue, Dec 04, 2012
D5Sat, Dec 01, 2012 - Sun, Dec 02, 2012 D8Tue, Dec 04, 2012 - Wed, Dec 05, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 272046
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CST TUE NOV 27 2012
   
   VALID 291200Z - 051200Z
   
   A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL EMERGE OVER THE U.S ON THURSDAY WITH A
   WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE ROCKIES...ACROSS THE
   PLAINS TO THE MS RIVER BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
   SHORTWAVE...A BROAD RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST/GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
   THEREAFTER...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE
   MODELS AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
   THE EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
   PLAINS TOWARD THE OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH TUESDAY. 
   
   AT THE SFC...A WEAK LEE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
   ON THURSDAY. ENHANCED W/SWLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRY
   CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL
   TRANSLATE TO ONLY LIGHT W/SW SFC WINDS. A STRONGER LEE LOW IS
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN
   TROUGH. ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM EARLY
   NEXT WEEK ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...DAY 7/MONDAY - SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN OK...
   MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
   EVOLUTION OF THE WRN TROUGH ON MONDAY. A STRONG SFC LOW IS EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP OVER ERN MT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
   ON MONDAY. A SFC TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND S/SW
   FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE/ERN
   NM BY MIDDAY. AN INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN GUSTY
   WIND POTENTIAL AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
   AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES E/SE. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE RAINFALL IS
   EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY INCLUDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
   THEREFORE...DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
   WINDS MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE THREAT.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 11/27/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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