Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 28, 2012

Updated: Wed Nov 28 20:52:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 28, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 28, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 28, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 28, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 28, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 28, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 28, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Nov 30, 2012 - Sat, Dec 01, 2012 D6Mon, Dec 03, 2012 - Tue, Dec 04, 2012
D4Sat, Dec 01, 2012 - Sun, Dec 02, 2012 D7Tue, Dec 04, 2012 - Wed, Dec 05, 2012
D5Sun, Dec 02, 2012 - Mon, Dec 03, 2012 D8Wed, Dec 05, 2012 - Thu, Dec 06, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282050
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CST WED NOV 28 2012
   
   VALID 301200Z - 061200Z
   
   OVERALL...A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
   WEEKEND BEFORE SOME AMPLIFICATION OCCURS WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF
   A TROUGH OVER THE WRN COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON D5/SUN AND INTO
   THE PLAINS ON D6/MON. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
   EWD WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING OF A SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS ON D5/SUN AND NRN PLAINS ON D6/MON. 
   
   ...D3/FRI - D7/TUE: ERN NM/SRN TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS...
   IT APPEARS TWO EVENTS WILL AFFECT THIS AREA DURING THE PERIOD. 
   
   EVENT ONE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH
   THE CNTRL ROCKIES ON D3/FRI AND THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS ON D4/SAT.
   SOME INTENSIFICATION OF A LEE TROUGH MAY OCCUR WITH THE POTENTIAL
   FOR SOME ENHANCED WLY WINDS ACROSS ERN NM AND THE SRN TX
   PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS ON D4/SAT. AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL
   BE IN PLACE BUT WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG WINDS IS
   EXPECTED TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS BELOW 20 MPH...PRECLUDING ANY
   HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. 
   
   EVENT TWO...THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE CYCLONE
   ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BEGINNING ON D5/SUN.
   ADDITIONALLY...A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM CNTRL
   KS SWWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
   THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. MARGINAL RISK AREAS
   HAVE BEEN DELINEATED FOR THIS AREA ON D5/SUN AND D6/MON.
   POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN KS ON D6/MON AND ACROSS THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...TX SOUTH PLAINS...AND WRN OK ON D7/TUE MAY REQUIRE
   HIGHLIGHTS IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS BUT POST-FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS ARE
   TOO UNCERTAIN ATTM.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 11/28/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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