Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 29, 2012

Updated: Thu Nov 29 20:47:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 29, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Dec 01, 2012 - Sun, Dec 02, 2012 D6Tue, Dec 04, 2012 - Wed, Dec 05, 2012
D4Sun, Dec 02, 2012 - Mon, Dec 03, 2012 D7Wed, Dec 05, 2012 - Thu, Dec 06, 2012
D5Mon, Dec 03, 2012 - Tue, Dec 04, 2012 D8Thu, Dec 06, 2012 - Fri, Dec 07, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 292045
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CST THU NOV 29 2012
   
   VALID 011200Z - 071200Z
   
   A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
   BEFORE SOME AMPLIFICATION OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER
   MS VALLEY ON D3/SAT. AS A RESULT...A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH SOME SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   TIGHTENING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES NEWD INTO
   SERN CANADA ON D4/SUN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONSIDERABLY
   STRONGER THAN THE FIRST... WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
   NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING OF AN ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED. BOTH THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING
   NEWD/EWD WITH A LARGE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
   D5/MON. 
   
   ...D4/SUN: ERN NM/SRN TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS...
   A SUBTLE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WEAKLY PHASED WITH THE CNTRL
   PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH MOVE
   OVER THE REGION AND MAY ACT TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR GUSTY WINDS
   AMIDST A WEAKLY ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...MODEL
   DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL AS TRENDS
   TOWARDS A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE LENDING UNCERTAINTY
   FOR FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A MARGINAL RISK AREA IS STILL
   OUTLINED ALTHOUGH ITS AREAL EXTENT IS SMALLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
   FORECAST.
   
   ...D5/MON: CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... 
   PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE
   PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN AND THE POTENTIAL
   FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM ERN KS SWWD INTO THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT INITIALLY LOCATED FARTHER NW FROM NW
   KS NEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   SEWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
   FAVOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SWRN NEB SWWD
   INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS
   FORECAST HAS BEEN EXPANDED NWD AND NOW INCLUDES MUCH OF THE
   CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURES PRECLUDES
   INTRODUCING ANY CRITICAL AREAS ATTM BUT UPGRADES MAY BE NEEDED IN
   SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 11/29/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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