Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Sat, Dec 01, 2012 - Sun, Dec 02, 2012 | D6 | Tue, Dec 04, 2012 - Wed, Dec 05, 2012 |
| D4 | Sun, Dec 02, 2012 - Mon, Dec 03, 2012 | D7 | Wed, Dec 05, 2012 - Thu, Dec 06, 2012 |
| D5 | Mon, Dec 03, 2012 - Tue, Dec 04, 2012 | D8 | Thu, Dec 06, 2012 - Fri, Dec 07, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 292045 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CST THU NOV 29 2012 VALID 011200Z - 071200Z A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SOME AMPLIFICATION OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY ON D3/SAT. AS A RESULT...A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH SOME SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES NEWD INTO SERN CANADA ON D4/SUN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE FIRST... WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED. BOTH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NEWD/EWD WITH A LARGE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON D5/MON. ...D4/SUN: ERN NM/SRN TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS... A SUBTLE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WEAKLY PHASED WITH THE CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH MOVE OVER THE REGION AND MAY ACT TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR GUSTY WINDS AMIDST A WEAKLY ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL AS TRENDS TOWARDS A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE LENDING UNCERTAINTY FOR FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A MARGINAL RISK AREA IS STILL OUTLINED ALTHOUGH ITS AREAL EXTENT IS SMALLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...D5/MON: CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM ERN KS SWWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT INITIALLY LOCATED FARTHER NW FROM NW KS NEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL FAVOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SWRN NEB SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EXPANDED NWD AND NOW INCLUDES MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURES PRECLUDES INTRODUCING ANY CRITICAL AREAS ATTM BUT UPGRADES MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. ..MOSIER.. 11/29/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT