Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 30, 2012

Updated: Fri Nov 30 20:45:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 30, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 30, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 30, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 30, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 30, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 30, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 30, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sun, Dec 02, 2012 - Mon, Dec 03, 2012 D6Wed, Dec 05, 2012 - Thu, Dec 06, 2012
D4Mon, Dec 03, 2012 - Tue, Dec 04, 2012 D7Thu, Dec 06, 2012 - Fri, Dec 07, 2012
D5Tue, Dec 04, 2012 - Wed, Dec 05, 2012 D8Fri, Dec 07, 2012 - Sat, Dec 08, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 302043
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2012
   
   VALID 021200Z - 081200Z
   
   PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. ON
   DAY 3/SUN...A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD AS
   A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST DEEPENS AND EMERGES OVER THE ROCKIES
   BY DAY 4/MON MORNING. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LEE
   TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY WHILE A
   COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER FLOW
   COMBINES WITH DRY/WARM SFC CONDITIONS. AS THE PLAINS TROUGH TRACKS
   EWD TOWARD THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS ON DAY 5/TUE...RIDGING IS
   EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS WHILE YET ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS
   INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTING FROM
   THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON DAY
   6/WED...EFFECTIVELY FLATTENING THE PLAINS RIDGE AND RESULTING IN A
   BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS BY DAY 8/FRI. SOME LEE TROUGHING IS
   EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM MIDWEEK AS THE PLAINS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
   THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON THU AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES S/SE ACROSS
   THE PLAINS.
   
   ...DAY 3/SUN SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM /70S F/ BENEATH WEAK
   PLAINS RIDGE. SOME MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP LAYER W/SWLY FLOW IS
   FORECAST WHICH WILL AID IN GUSTY SFC WIND POTENTIAL AS BOUNDARY
   LAYER MIXES TO AROUND 5 KFT AGL. SW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO
   30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 12-17 PERCENT
   RANGE. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY/CURED
   FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL.
   
   ...DAY 4/MON SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
   N/NW WINDS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED /10-15 MPH
   GUSTING TO 25 MPH/. AS SFC TROUGH AND THE FRONT PROGRESS EWD THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5-10
   DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY RESULTING IN HIGHER RH VALUES/20-30
   PERCENT/. THEREFORE...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MILDLY ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ...DAY 6-7/WED-THU SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   A SIMILAR SETUP TO THAT EARLIER IN THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON
   WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
   DEVELOPING A STRONGER LEE LOW FURTHER SOUTH /SE CO INTO SW KS/ THAN
   EARLIER IN THE WEEK. SO WHILE DEEP LAYER FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR ANY
   STRONGER THAN SUN/MON...LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BE MORE GUSTY DUE TO
   TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY WHEN STRONGER
   COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEHIND A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
   ADDITIONALLY...RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW ACROSS THE
   REGION..FROM 12-20 PERCENT.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 11/30/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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