Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 1, 2012

Updated: Sat Dec 1 20:13:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Mon, Dec 03, 2012 - Tue, Dec 04, 2012 D6Thu, Dec 06, 2012 - Fri, Dec 07, 2012
D4Tue, Dec 04, 2012 - Wed, Dec 05, 2012 D7Fri, Dec 07, 2012 - Sat, Dec 08, 2012
D5Wed, Dec 05, 2012 - Thu, Dec 06, 2012 D8Sat, Dec 08, 2012 - Sun, Dec 09, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 012011
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 PM CST SAT DEC 01 2012
   
   VALID 031200Z - 091200Z
   
   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL TROUGHS EWD
   ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   RIDGING BETWEEN EACH TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARMING ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND LITTLE
   RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. AS THE PLAINS RIDGES BREAK DOWN/SHIFT EWD WITH
   THE ADVANCEMENT OF WRN TROUGHS...WEAK SFC LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS
   EXPECTED ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE SEVERAL DAYS OF
   LIGHT WINDS AND MARGINALLY LOW RH CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS...THE MOST LIKELY DAYS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH/RIDGE PROGRESSION WILL BE DAY
   5/WED AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON DAY 8/SAT /THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DAY
   8/. 
   
   ...DAY 3/MON - SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
   SUNDAY/DAY 2. N/NW WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON FROM W TX
   NWD ACROSS WRN KS/NEB. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO MID 60S
   WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES FROM 20-25 PERCENT. MARGINAL WIND/RH
   CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A HIGHLIGHTED AREA DESPITE ONGOING DRYNESS.
   
   
   ...DAY 5/WED - NE NM...OK/TX PANHANDLES...
   A LEE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ON
   WEDNESDAY AND MOVE S/SEWD THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE DEEP LAYER FLOW
   WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...A MODEST INCREASE IN SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEE LOW MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED/GUSTY SFC
   WINDS. W/SW WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
   RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY LOW...AROUND 15-22 PERCENT.
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
   WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 12/01/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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