Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 2, 2012

Updated: Sun Dec 2 20:33:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Dec 04, 2012 - Wed, Dec 05, 2012 D6Fri, Dec 07, 2012 - Sat, Dec 08, 2012
D4Wed, Dec 05, 2012 - Thu, Dec 06, 2012 D7Sat, Dec 08, 2012 - Sun, Dec 09, 2012
D5Thu, Dec 06, 2012 - Fri, Dec 07, 2012 D8Sun, Dec 09, 2012 - Mon, Dec 10, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022031
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 PM CST SUN DEC 02 2012
   
   VALID 041200Z - 101200Z
   
   MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
   PERIOD. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
   AROUND DAY 5/THU. AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVES TOWARD THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
   SHIFT EWD...REPLACING THE PLAINS TROUGH ON TUESDAY/DAY 3. THE
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD ALONG THE U.S/CANADA
   BORDER AND THE PLAINS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EWD...LEAVING
   A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS ON
   DAY 4/WED. ASSOCIATED SFC LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND A SWD ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AFTER DAY
   4...A BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCEPT
   ALONG THE COASTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
   REINFORCING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE
   TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
   PLAINS AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT MAY BRING HIGHER
   CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.
   
   ...DAY 4/WED - PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   AN INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PLAINS LOW AND GREAT
   LAKES HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS FROM NE NM INTO CNTRL KS/SRN NEB. SW WINDS
   15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. THE OVERALL THREAT MAY BE
   TEMPERED BY ONLY MARGINALLY LOW RH AS AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW
   VALUES AROUND 0.40-0.50 INCHES RESULTS IN VALUES BETWEEN 20-30
   PERCENT. DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER...AN
   ELEVATED THREAT MAY STILL EXIST.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 12/02/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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