Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 3, 2012

Updated: Mon Dec 3 20:36:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Dec 05, 2012 - Thu, Dec 06, 2012 D6Sat, Dec 08, 2012 - Sun, Dec 09, 2012
D4Thu, Dec 06, 2012 - Fri, Dec 07, 2012 D7Sun, Dec 09, 2012 - Mon, Dec 10, 2012
D5Fri, Dec 07, 2012 - Sat, Dec 08, 2012 D8Mon, Dec 10, 2012 - Tue, Dec 11, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032034
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 PM CST MON DEC 03 2012
   
   VALID 051200Z - 111200Z
   
   BROAD...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S WILL BE
   REPLACED BY A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ON DAY 3/WEDNESDAY. WHILE DEEP
   LAYER FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /EXCEPT NEAR THE
   U.S-CANADA BORDER/...INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
   PLAINS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH LARGER SCALE FLOW WILL HELP DEEPEN THE
   TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...LEAVING MOST OF THE
   CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DEEP BUT BROAD TROUGH. AS THE
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVEL SEWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE PLAINS
   TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...LEE TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
   AND LEAD TO PERIODS OF BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE
   PLAINS. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE CHANCES
   FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...LIMITING FIRE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...RAINFALL
   CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AROUND DAY
   8/MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP S/SE ACROSS THE
   PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES ON DAY 7/SUN AND WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL
   PRECLUDE ANY PROBABILITIES.
   
   ...DAY 3/WED - PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   ENHANCED S/SWLY SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
   DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SWD ACROSS THE
   PLAINS. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN GUSTY WIND
   POTENTIAL DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH
   GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED /POSSIBLY HIGHER ACROSS FAR SE SD
   INTO ERN NEB/. MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ARE
   FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 60.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 12/03/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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