Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 4, 2012

Updated: Tue Dec 4 20:03:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Dec 06, 2012 - Fri, Dec 07, 2012 D6Sun, Dec 09, 2012 - Mon, Dec 10, 2012
D4Fri, Dec 07, 2012 - Sat, Dec 08, 2012 D7Mon, Dec 10, 2012 - Tue, Dec 11, 2012
D5Sat, Dec 08, 2012 - Sun, Dec 09, 2012 D8Tue, Dec 11, 2012 - Wed, Dec 12, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042002
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CST TUE DEC 04 2012
   
   VALID 061200Z - 121200Z
   
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE DAY
   3-8 PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS ON DAY 3/THU
   WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
   ROTATING THROUGH LARGER SCALE FLOW WILL REINFORCE AND AMPLIFY THE
   TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. THE MOST NOTABLE IMPULSE CONTRIBUTING TO
   STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING OF THIS TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD FROM THE PAC
   NW TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS ON DAY 6/SUN.
   STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY FROM SRN CA
   INTO THE SRN PLAINS. RECENT RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA WILL
   HELP TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS AZ/NM AND
   INTO THE SRN PLAINS...COOL TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN HIGHER RH
   VALUES WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL DESPITE ONGOING DROUGHT.
   BEYOND DAY 6...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
   TROUGH...LEADING TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONDITIONS.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 12/04/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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