Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Fri, Dec 07, 2012 - Sat, Dec 08, 2012 | D6 | Mon, Dec 10, 2012 - Tue, Dec 11, 2012 |
| D4 | Sat, Dec 08, 2012 - Sun, Dec 09, 2012 | D7 | Tue, Dec 11, 2012 - Wed, Dec 12, 2012 |
| D5 | Sun, Dec 09, 2012 - Mon, Dec 10, 2012 | D8 | Wed, Dec 12, 2012 - Thu, Dec 13, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 052009 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 PM CST WED DEC 05 2012 VALID 071200Z - 131200Z A MEAN TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY 3-8 PERIOD. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY BROAD TROUGH...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INSTANCES OF A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL DROP SEWD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARD CNTRL TX DAY 4-5/SAT-SUN BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S ON DAY 6/MON. ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST IMPULSE...A SECOND AND THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL AGAIN DEEPEN THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON DAY 7-8/TUE-WED. LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF EACH OF THESE IMPULSES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS FROM SE CO/SW KS INTO ERN NM/SW TX. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/SFC LOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON DAY 4-5. SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. ...DAY 4-5/SAT-SUN SRN HIGH PLAINS... A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CO AND MOVE S/SE ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. ENHANCED SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CO...ERN NM AND W TX . WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECASTS...LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL FALL ON SATURDAY...BUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE IS MOST LIKELY. AS THE LOW TRACKS EWD ACROSS OK ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL CRITERIA AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COMBINATION OF ONLY MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES ON SATURDAY AND COLDER TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT DESPITE STRONG WINDS AND ONGOING DROUGHT. ..LEITMAN.. 12/05/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT