Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 5, 2012

Updated: Wed Dec 5 20:11:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Dec 07, 2012 - Sat, Dec 08, 2012 D6Mon, Dec 10, 2012 - Tue, Dec 11, 2012
D4Sat, Dec 08, 2012 - Sun, Dec 09, 2012 D7Tue, Dec 11, 2012 - Wed, Dec 12, 2012
D5Sun, Dec 09, 2012 - Mon, Dec 10, 2012 D8Wed, Dec 12, 2012 - Thu, Dec 13, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052009
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 PM CST WED DEC 05 2012
   
   VALID 071200Z - 131200Z
   
   A MEAN TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY 3-8
   PERIOD. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY BROAD
   TROUGH...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
   LEAD TO INSTANCES OF A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. THE FIRST OF THESE
   IMPULSES WILL DROP SEWD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS
   GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARD CNTRL TX DAY 4-5/SAT-SUN BEFORE
   SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S ON DAY 6/MON. ON THE HEELS OF THE
   FIRST IMPULSE...A SECOND AND THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL AGAIN DEEPEN THE
   BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON DAY 7-8/TUE-WED. LEE LOW
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF EACH OF THESE IMPULSES
   WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS FROM SE CO/SW KS INTO ERN NM/SW TX.
   MOST NOTABLE WILL BE THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/SFC LOW EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON DAY 4-5. SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST LOW
   CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ...DAY 4-5/SAT-SUN SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CO AND MOVE S/SE ACROSS ERN NM AND THE
   TX PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. ENHANCED SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
   A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CO...ERN NM AND W TX . WIND SPEEDS
   AROUND 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MEDIUM RANGE
   MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
   FORECASTS...LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL
   FALL ON SATURDAY...BUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE IS MOST
   LIKELY. AS THE LOW TRACKS EWD ACROSS OK ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS
   WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES WELL ABOVE
   CRITICAL CRITERIA AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
   FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COMBINATION OF ONLY MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES ON
   SATURDAY AND COLDER TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY
   WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT DESPITE STRONG WINDS AND ONGOING
   DROUGHT.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 12/05/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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