Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 6, 2012

Updated: Thu Dec 6 21:07:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 6, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 6, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 6, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 6, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 6, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 6, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 6, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Dec 08, 2012 - Sun, Dec 09, 2012 D6Tue, Dec 11, 2012 - Wed, Dec 12, 2012
D4Sun, Dec 09, 2012 - Mon, Dec 10, 2012 D7Wed, Dec 12, 2012 - Thu, Dec 13, 2012
D5Mon, Dec 10, 2012 - Tue, Dec 11, 2012 D8Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - Fri, Dec 14, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062105
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CST THU DEC 06 2012
   
   VALID 081200Z - 141200Z
   
   A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS DURING MOST OF THE DAY 3-8
   PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DAY 3/SATURDAY
   THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL ROTATE S/SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW
   AND GREAT BASIN...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES AS IT
   TRACKS EWD TOWARD THE PLAINS ON DAY 4/SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH
   AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EWD...LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER ERN
   CO ON SATURDAY AND SHIFT S/SE ACROSS NE NM INTO SRN OK BY SUNDAY
   MORNING. RESULTING ENHANCED W/SW FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS MAY INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY BEFORE A
   STRONG COLD FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AS STRONG
   HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SRN CA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS ON SUNDAY. FIRE
   WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED OVER THESE AREAS THOUGH DO TO
   EITHER UNFAVORABLE FUELS OR RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS. A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
   INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY/DAY 5-6...MAINTAINING THE
   TROUGH EAST OF THE PACIFIC COAST. BEYOND DAY 6...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
   FORECASTS DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/DEVELOPING
   TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST.
   
   ...DAY 3/SATURDAY - SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
   CO INTO ERN NM AND WRN TX TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF LEE LOW CENTER.
   DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL AID IN WARMING AND DRYING LOW LEVELS. RH VALUES
   FROM 15-25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S
   NORTH TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH. RH VALUES MAY BE HIGHER ACROSS
   CO...LIMITING POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WIND SPEEDS AROUND
   15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ONGOING DROUGHT AND DRY
   FUELS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
   THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE N AND
   USHERING IN MUCH COLD AIR.
   
   ...DAY 4/SUNDAY - SRN CA...
   GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS SFC TROUGH
   STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE
   TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT
   BASIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ARE FORECAST
   AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL AID IN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 12-20
   PERCENT RANGE. WHILE NE WINDS MAY GUST GREATER THAN 30-40 MPH
   /ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES AND THE FOOTHILLS/...SOME
   RECENT PRECIPITATION AND GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS
   SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 12/06/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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