Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 7, 2012

Updated: Fri Dec 7 20:29:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 7, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 7, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 7, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 7, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 7, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 7, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 7, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sun, Dec 09, 2012 - Mon, Dec 10, 2012 D6Wed, Dec 12, 2012 - Thu, Dec 13, 2012
D4Mon, Dec 10, 2012 - Tue, Dec 11, 2012 D7Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - Fri, Dec 14, 2012
D5Tue, Dec 11, 2012 - Wed, Dec 12, 2012 D8Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - Sat, Dec 15, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 072028
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CST FRI DEC 07 2012
   
   VALID 091200Z - 151200Z
   
   AN INITIAL LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY
   /D3/ WILL PIVOT EWD INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY /D4/ WITH A SERIES OF
   DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING EWD ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
   OF THE PERIOD.  AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT IN SRN CA IS A DISTINCT
   POSSIBILITY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.  THE PROGRESSIVE
   CHARACTER OF THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL ACT
   TO CONFINE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SRN CA TO THE
   SUNDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
   
   ...SRN CA MTNS AND COASTAL AREAS /D3-D4/...
   MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING TOWARDS A
   POTENTIAL SCENARIO OF AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT OVER SRN CA AS SURFACE
   HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
   AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.  VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
   MOVE INTO THE SRN CA COASTAL VICINITY FROM THE MOJAVE
   DESERT...YIELDING CRITICALLY LOW RH.  POTENTIALLY STRONG NELY/S MAY
   DEVELOP IN EARNEST LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY HALF OF
   MONDAY.  IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THIS
   SCENARIO...AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL WILL BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT
   OUTLOOK.
   
   ..SMITH.. 12/07/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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