Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Mon, Dec 10, 2012 - Tue, Dec 11, 2012 | D6 | Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - Fri, Dec 14, 2012 |
| D4 | Tue, Dec 11, 2012 - Wed, Dec 12, 2012 | D7 | Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - Sat, Dec 15, 2012 |
| D5 | Wed, Dec 12, 2012 - Thu, Dec 13, 2012 | D8 | Sat, Dec 15, 2012 - Sun, Dec 16, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 082043 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CST SAT DEC 08 2012 VALID 101200Z - 161200Z DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. LINGERING LOWER RH FROM A WEAKENING OFFSHORE EVENT IN SRN CA WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. A SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SWRN DESERTS ON THURSDAY /D6/ WITH DOWNSTREAM LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING SWLY/S AND LOWER RH DURING PEAK HEATING WILL SEEMINGLY LEAD TO POSSIBLE CRITICAL CONDITIONS. MODEL VARIABILITY IS APPRECIABLY LOW DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY /D6-D7/ PERIOD...DECREASING UNCERTAINTY FOR A POTENTIAL SRN HIGH PLAINS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN. BY FRIDAY /D7/...THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE EJECTS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. IF THIS SCENARIO IS REALIZED...A BELT OF STRONG LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL OVERSPREAD AN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS TO THE WEST OF A NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL SETUP...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. ..SMITH.. 12/08/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT