Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 8, 2012

Updated: Sat Dec 8 20:45:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 8, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 8, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 8, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 8, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 8, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 8, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 8, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Mon, Dec 10, 2012 - Tue, Dec 11, 2012 D6Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - Fri, Dec 14, 2012
D4Tue, Dec 11, 2012 - Wed, Dec 12, 2012 D7Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - Sat, Dec 15, 2012
D5Wed, Dec 12, 2012 - Thu, Dec 13, 2012 D8Sat, Dec 15, 2012 - Sun, Dec 16, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 082043
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CST SAT DEC 08 2012
   
   VALID 101200Z - 161200Z
   
   DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL
   RUNS MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS.  LINGERING
   LOWER RH FROM A WEAKENING OFFSHORE EVENT IN SRN CA WILL PROBABLY
   ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION.  A SIGNIFICANT
   UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SWRN DESERTS ON
   THURSDAY /D6/ WITH DOWNSTREAM LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS.  INCREASING SWLY/S AND LOWER RH DURING PEAK HEATING
   WILL SEEMINGLY LEAD TO POSSIBLE CRITICAL CONDITIONS.  MODEL
   VARIABILITY IS APPRECIABLY LOW DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY /D6-D7/
   PERIOD...DECREASING UNCERTAINTY FOR A POTENTIAL SRN HIGH PLAINS
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN.  BY FRIDAY /D7/...THE DEEP LAYER
   CYCLONE EJECTS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO RIVER
   VALLEY.  IF THIS SCENARIO IS REALIZED...A BELT OF STRONG LOW-MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
   WILL OVERSPREAD AN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS TO THE WEST OF A
   NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE.  IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING
   THIS POTENTIAL SETUP...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 12/08/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT