Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 9, 2012

Updated: Sun Dec 9 21:31:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 9, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 9, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 9, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 9, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 9, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 9, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 9, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Dec 11, 2012 - Wed, Dec 12, 2012 D6Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - Sat, Dec 15, 2012
D4Wed, Dec 12, 2012 - Thu, Dec 13, 2012 D7Sat, Dec 15, 2012 - Sun, Dec 16, 2012
D5Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - Fri, Dec 14, 2012 D8Sun, Dec 16, 2012 - Mon, Dec 17, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092129
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 PM CST SUN DEC 09 2012
   
   VALID 111200Z - 171200Z
   
   AN AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   EXTENDED PERIOD.  A NOTEWORTHY SIGNAL IN THE MODELS SHOWS THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT
   SW BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.  SIZABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING
   THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AS IT EJECTS EWD INTO THE CNTRL STATES
   BY FRIDAY.  NONETHELESS...STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS WILL
   SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY /D5/ OVER THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY /D6/ AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN-CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS STATES.  WILL REFRAIN FROM DELINEATING A HIGH CONFIDENCE
   AREA FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE TIME
   BEING UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT REDUCES TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
   
   ..SMITH.. 12/09/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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