Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 10, 2012

Updated: Mon Dec 10 20:56:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 10, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 10, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 10, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 10, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 10, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 10, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 10, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Dec 12, 2012 - Thu, Dec 13, 2012 D6Sat, Dec 15, 2012 - Sun, Dec 16, 2012
D4Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - Fri, Dec 14, 2012 D7Sun, Dec 16, 2012 - Mon, Dec 17, 2012
D5Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - Sat, Dec 15, 2012 D8Mon, Dec 17, 2012 - Tue, Dec 18, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102054
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CST MON DEC 10 2012
   
   VALID 121200Z - 181200Z
   
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR
   REGIME WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  A DEEPENING UPPER
   TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY /D3/ WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
   CNTRL STATES BY FRIDAY /D5/.  ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
   POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY /D3/
   INVOF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL LEE TROUGH.  A CONTINUATION OF
   ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING ON
   THURSDAY OVER THE SAME REGION.  FAIRLY LARGE MODEL SPREAD IS EVIDENT
   IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SWRN U.S.
   TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL STATES BY FRIDAY /D5/.  POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEARS GREATEST ON FRIDAY /D5/ OVER THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS...BUT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
   PRECLUDES A HIGHER CONFIDENCE RISK AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 12/10/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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