Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 11, 2012

Updated: Tue Dec 11 20:39:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 11, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 11, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 11, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 11, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 11, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 11, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 11, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - Fri, Dec 14, 2012 D6Sun, Dec 16, 2012 - Mon, Dec 17, 2012
D4Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - Sat, Dec 15, 2012 D7Mon, Dec 17, 2012 - Tue, Dec 18, 2012
D5Sat, Dec 15, 2012 - Sun, Dec 16, 2012 D8Tue, Dec 18, 2012 - Wed, Dec 19, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112037
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CST TUE DEC 11 2012
   
   VALID 131200Z - 191200Z
   
   THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
   DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS IT EJECTS EWD FROM THE SRN
   ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY /D3-D4/
   PERIOD.  THE TROUGH/S EVOLUTION WILL SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT THE
   POTENTIAL RISK FOR DRY/WARM/WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...WILL MAINTAIN A
   LOWER PROBABILITY AREA FOR STRONG WINDS/LOW RH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY /D4/.  BEYOND THIS
   TIMEFRAME...VARIABILITY AMONGST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PRECLUDES FURTHER
   FIRE WEATHER RISK DELINEATION...AS AN ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR
   PATTERN IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
   
   ..SMITH.. 12/11/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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