Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Thu, Dec 13, 2012 - Fri, Dec 14, 2012 | D6 | Sun, Dec 16, 2012 - Mon, Dec 17, 2012 |
| D4 | Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - Sat, Dec 15, 2012 | D7 | Mon, Dec 17, 2012 - Tue, Dec 18, 2012 |
| D5 | Sat, Dec 15, 2012 - Sun, Dec 16, 2012 | D8 | Tue, Dec 18, 2012 - Wed, Dec 19, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 112037 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CST TUE DEC 11 2012 VALID 131200Z - 191200Z THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS IT EJECTS EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY /D3-D4/ PERIOD. THE TROUGH/S EVOLUTION WILL SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT THE POTENTIAL RISK FOR DRY/WARM/WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...WILL MAINTAIN A LOWER PROBABILITY AREA FOR STRONG WINDS/LOW RH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY /D4/. BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...VARIABILITY AMONGST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PRECLUDES FURTHER FIRE WEATHER RISK DELINEATION...AS AN ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. ..SMITH.. 12/11/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT