Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 12, 2012

Updated: Wed Dec 12 20:46:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 12, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 12, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 12, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 12, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 12, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 12, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 12, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - Sat, Dec 15, 2012 D6Mon, Dec 17, 2012 - Tue, Dec 18, 2012
D4Sat, Dec 15, 2012 - Sun, Dec 16, 2012 D7Tue, Dec 18, 2012 - Wed, Dec 19, 2012
D5Sun, Dec 16, 2012 - Mon, Dec 17, 2012 D8Wed, Dec 19, 2012 - Thu, Dec 20, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122045
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CST WED DEC 12 2012
   
   VALID 141200Z - 201200Z
   
   A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM WILL CROSS PARTS OF THE U.S. FROM LATE
   THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK...AS AN ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN BECOMES
   ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC. CONCOMITANT
   ENHANCEMENTS TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS...AUGMENTED BY SFC
   CYCLOGENESIS...WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON A PERIODIC BASIS.
   HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG SFC WINDS AND
   CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES OVER DRY FUELS IS TOO LOW FOR ANY CRITICAL
   DESIGNATIONS AT THIS TIME FOR D3/FRI THROUGH D8/WED.
   
   REGARDLESS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS
   OF WRN TX AND SERN NM ON D3/FRI AS STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW
   SUPPORTS STRONG SLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES. DESPITE
   DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ACTING TO WARM/DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER...PACIFIC
   MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT
   SUFFICIENTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS...ALONG WITH CLOUD COVERAGE CURTAILING
   DIURNAL HEATING...TO KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AS
   SUCH...A CRITICAL AREA IS NOT WARRANTED.
   
   AFTER D3/FRI...CONFIDENCE IN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
   FURTHER DETRACTED BY MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIABILITY REGARDING THE
   EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE
   FLOW. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   AT VARIOUS TIMES FROM D4/SAT THROUGH D8/WED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...AND PERHAPS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES
   CONTINGENT UPON THE ERN EXTENT OF DRY AIR INTRUSIONS AND ANTECEDENT
   RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF PREDICTABILITY PRECLUDES THE
   DELINEATION OF ANY PROBABILISTIC AREAS AT THIS TIME AFTER D3/FRI.
   
   ..COHEN.. 12/12/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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