Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 13, 2012

Updated: Thu Dec 13 21:07:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 13, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 13, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 13, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 13, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 13, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 13, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 13, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Dec 15, 2012 - Sun, Dec 16, 2012 D6Tue, Dec 18, 2012 - Wed, Dec 19, 2012
D4Sun, Dec 16, 2012 - Mon, Dec 17, 2012 D7Wed, Dec 19, 2012 - Thu, Dec 20, 2012
D5Mon, Dec 17, 2012 - Tue, Dec 18, 2012 D8Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - Fri, Dec 21, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132106
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CST THU DEC 13 2012
   
   VALID 151200Z - 211200Z
   
   AN ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD ACROSS
   THE CONUS.  A NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF LOW RH/STRONG WINDS MAY
   DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NW/W TX EWD INTO N-CNTRL TX AND S-CNTRL OK ON
   SATURDAY /D3/...BUT LOW PROBABILITY FOR CRITICAL RH PRECLUDES A LOW
   PROBABILITY AREA AT THIS TIME.  LATER IN THE EXTENDED
   PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIGNAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
   LOW/LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER TROUGH
   SITUATED OVER THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY /D6/.  IF CONFIDENCE
   INCREASES REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW RH...THEN AN EXPANSION IN
   AREA/HIGHER PROBABILITY AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. 
   MODEL VARIABILITY BEYOND TUESDAY /D6/ PRECLUDES ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE
   FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA/S/.
   
   ..SMITH.. 12/13/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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