Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 14, 2012

Updated: Fri Dec 14 21:06:02 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 14, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 14, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 14, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 14, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 14, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 14, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 14, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sun, Dec 16, 2012 - Mon, Dec 17, 2012 D6Wed, Dec 19, 2012 - Thu, Dec 20, 2012
D4Mon, Dec 17, 2012 - Tue, Dec 18, 2012 D7Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - Fri, Dec 21, 2012
D5Tue, Dec 18, 2012 - Wed, Dec 19, 2012 D8Fri, Dec 21, 2012 - Sat, Dec 22, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142105
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012
   
   VALID 161200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...D3/SUN - ERN NM...WRN TX...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUN...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND
   OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH WILL FOCUS DEEP-LAYER WLY
   FLOW OVER ERN NM AND W TX...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
   EXCEEDING 20 MPH. HOWEVER...RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
   RESIDE IN THE 20S...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF
   WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ...D5/TUE - TX/OK PANHANDLES...NWRN OK...PORTIONS OF NERN/E-CNTRL
   NM...
   WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS ON TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS SUSTAINED W-SWLY SURFACE WIND
   SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...NWRN OK AND PORTIONS
   OF NERN/E-CNTRL NM. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES BOUNDARY
   LAYER RH VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...WHICH
   WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE ATTM.
   
   ...D6/WED - SRN PLAINS...
   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN
   ROCKIES ON WED...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER
   THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL FAVOR CRITICALLY STRONG
   SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM CNTRL OK INTO WRN TX. ATTM...IT IS NOT
   COMPLETELY CLEAR WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL RESIDE...BUT A
   LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE BIG BEND AREA NEWD TOWARD
   THE RED RIVER MAY BE THE MOST PROBABLE ZONE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
   IN BOUNDARY LAYER RH...WILL DEFER ANY UPGRADE TO CRITICAL TO FUTURE
   OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...D7/THU - SRN PLAINS...
   A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SEWD INTO THE GULF OF
   MEXICO ON THU...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY WINDY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE
   OVER THE SRN PLAINS. DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...COOL POST FRONTAL
   TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   ATTM.
   
   ..GARNER.. 12/14/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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