Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Sun, Dec 16, 2012 - Mon, Dec 17, 2012 | D6 | Wed, Dec 19, 2012 - Thu, Dec 20, 2012 |
| D4 | Mon, Dec 17, 2012 - Tue, Dec 18, 2012 | D7 | Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - Fri, Dec 21, 2012 |
| D5 | Tue, Dec 18, 2012 - Wed, Dec 19, 2012 | D8 | Fri, Dec 21, 2012 - Sat, Dec 22, 2012 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 142105 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012 VALID 161200Z - 221200Z ...D3/SUN - ERN NM...WRN TX... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUN...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH WILL FOCUS DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW OVER ERN NM AND W TX...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS LIKELY EXCEEDING 20 MPH. HOWEVER...RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESIDE IN THE 20S...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRE PROBABILITIES. ...D5/TUE - TX/OK PANHANDLES...NWRN OK...PORTIONS OF NERN/E-CNTRL NM... WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS SUSTAINED W-SWLY SURFACE WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...NWRN OK AND PORTIONS OF NERN/E-CNTRL NM. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE ATTM. ...D6/WED - SRN PLAINS... A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES ON WED...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL FAVOR CRITICALLY STRONG SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM CNTRL OK INTO WRN TX. ATTM...IT IS NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL RESIDE...BUT A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE BIG BEND AREA NEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER MAY BE THE MOST PROBABLE ZONE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOUNDARY LAYER RH...WILL DEFER ANY UPGRADE TO CRITICAL TO FUTURE OUTLOOKS. ...D7/THU - SRN PLAINS... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SEWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THU...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY WINDY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ATTM. ..GARNER.. 12/14/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT