Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 15, 2012

Updated: Sat Dec 15 19:30:04 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 15, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 15, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 15, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 15, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 15, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 15, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 15, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Mon, Dec 17, 2012 - Tue, Dec 18, 2012 D6Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - Fri, Dec 21, 2012
D4Tue, Dec 18, 2012 - Wed, Dec 19, 2012 D7Fri, Dec 21, 2012 - Sat, Dec 22, 2012
D5Wed, Dec 19, 2012 - Thu, Dec 20, 2012 D8Sat, Dec 22, 2012 - Sun, Dec 23, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 151929
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2012
   
   VALID 171200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...D4/TUE - TX/OK PANHANDLES...FAR WRN OK...PORTIONS OF NERN/E-CNTRL
   NM...
   UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE W COAST WILL AID IN LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
   OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUE. AS A RESULT...LOW-LEVEL SWLY WINDS WILL
   STRENGTHEN AND LEAD TO SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS FROM 15-25 MPH. IN
   ADDITION...ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS COMBINED WITH A DRY
   ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL FAVOR MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
   20S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...D5/WED - SRN PLAINS...
   A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE ARE
   FORECAST TO EJECT EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON WED. THIS WILL RESULT
   IN AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT OVER THE SRN
   PLAINS...WITH SURFACE WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20-40 MPH.
   ATTM...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY
   PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RH VALUES. THUS...AN UPGRADE WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE DEFERRED TO FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...D6/THU - SRN PLAINS...
   THE STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON WED WILL PROGRESS
   ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON THU. DRY AND WINDY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS
   WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPERATURES AND
   QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF
   WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRE PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ..GARNER.. 12/15/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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