Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 16, 2012

Updated: Sun Dec 16 20:30:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 16, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 16, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 16, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 16, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 16, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 16, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 16, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Dec 18, 2012 - Wed, Dec 19, 2012 D6Fri, Dec 21, 2012 - Sat, Dec 22, 2012
D4Wed, Dec 19, 2012 - Thu, Dec 20, 2012 D7Sat, Dec 22, 2012 - Sun, Dec 23, 2012
D5Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - Fri, Dec 21, 2012 D8Sun, Dec 23, 2012 - Mon, Dec 24, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162029
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012
   
   VALID 181200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...D3/TUE - NERN/E-CNTRL NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE...
   TROUGHING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL AID IN SURFACE LEE TROUGH
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUE. THIS WILL AID IN SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH OVER NERN/E-CNTRL NM AND THE
   WRN TX PANHANDLE. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY DEEP...MILD TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS
   WILL YIELD RH VALUES FROM THE MID TEENS INTO THE LOW 20S. THESE
   CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE A MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...D4/WED - SRN PLAINS...
   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE
   INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON WED. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOW
   PRESSURE AND STRONG LOW/MIDLEVEL WLY WIND FIELDS WILL FAVOR
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM 20-40 MPH. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL
   COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY OFFSET ENHANCED DRYING ACCOMPANYING THE
   STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ABSENCE OF
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RH VALUES IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE
   UNCERTAINTY IN BOUNDARY LAYER DRYNESS...AN UPGRADE WILL NOT BE MADE
   ATTM.
   
   ...D5/THU - SRN PLAINS INTO SRN/ERN TX AND AR/LA...
   AS A STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON WED ADVANCES
   ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON THU...A DRY/WINDY POST FRONTAL REGIME WILL
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO SRN/ERN TX AND AR/LA. THOUGH
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 MPH...AND RH VALUES
   WILL FALL INTO THE 20S...COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
   QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE ATTM.
   
   ..GARNER.. 12/16/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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