Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 17, 2012

Updated: Mon Dec 17 19:55:04 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 17, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 17, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 17, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 17, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 17, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 17, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 17, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Dec 19, 2012 - Thu, Dec 20, 2012 D6Sat, Dec 22, 2012 - Sun, Dec 23, 2012
D4Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - Fri, Dec 21, 2012 D7Sun, Dec 23, 2012 - Mon, Dec 24, 2012
D5Fri, Dec 21, 2012 - Sat, Dec 22, 2012 D8Mon, Dec 24, 2012 - Tue, Dec 25, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 171953
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 PM CST MON DEC 17 2012
   
   VALID 191200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...D3/WED - SRN PLAINS...
   A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
   ENTER THE GREAT PLAINS ON WED. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS
   COMBINED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL AID IN SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WIND SPEEDS FROM 20-40 MPH. PRIMARY FACTOR PRECLUDING AN UPGRADE TO
   CRITICAL IS THE SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT OF WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
   TEMPERATURES E OF THE DRY DOWNSLOPE REGIME. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
   ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE DRYING OVERLAPPING WARM TEMPERATURES MAY EXTEND
   N-NEWD FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TOWARD THE RED RIVER.
   HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO IS STILL HIGH...SO ANY
   POTENTIAL UPGRADE WILL BE DEFERRED TO FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...D4/THU - SRN PLAINS INTO SRN/ERN TX AND AR/LA...
   THE GREAT PLAINS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON THU.
   AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
   MEXICO. DRY/WINDY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER
   THE SRN PLAINS INTO SRN/ERN TX AND AR/LA...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
   IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND SUSTAINED NLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH.
   HOWEVER...COOL TEMPERATURES AND QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL
   PRECLUDE AN INTRODUCTION OF WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRE PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ..GARNER.. 12/17/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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