Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 18, 2012

Updated: Tue Dec 18 21:12:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 18, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 18, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 18, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 18, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 18, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 18, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 18, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - Fri, Dec 21, 2012 D6Sun, Dec 23, 2012 - Mon, Dec 24, 2012
D4Fri, Dec 21, 2012 - Sat, Dec 22, 2012 D7Mon, Dec 24, 2012 - Tue, Dec 25, 2012
D5Sat, Dec 22, 2012 - Sun, Dec 23, 2012 D8Tue, Dec 25, 2012 - Wed, Dec 26, 2012
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 182111
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CST TUE DEC 18 2012
   
   VALID 201200Z - 261200Z
   
   DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL
   MOVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND EFFECTIVELY DRIVE A COLD
   FRONT S AND E ACROSS THE GULF AND THE ERN SEABOARD.  IN ITS
   WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ELONGATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS
   AN UPPER RIDGE POSITIONS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND. 
   MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY BY
   LATE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE W COAST.  A
   NON-ZERO FIRE WEATHER RISK MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE
   MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AHEAD OF AN EJECTING DISTURBANCE INTO THE
   PLAINS STATES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS SUFFICIENTLY LOW
   TO NOT DELINEATE A LOW PROBABILITY AREA AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..SMITH.. 12/18/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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