Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 26, 2012

Updated: Wed Dec 26 20:10:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 26, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 26, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 26, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 26, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 26, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 26, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 26, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Dec 28, 2012 - Sat, Dec 29, 2012 D6Mon, Dec 31, 2012 - Tue, Jan 01, 2013
D4Sat, Dec 29, 2012 - Sun, Dec 30, 2012 D7Tue, Jan 01, 2013 - Wed, Jan 02, 2013
D5Sun, Dec 30, 2012 - Mon, Dec 31, 2012 D8Wed, Jan 02, 2013 - Thu, Jan 03, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 262008
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 PM CST WED DEC 26 2012
   
   VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
   
   A GENERALLY TRANQUIL FIRE PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED
   PERIOD AS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MAINTAINS AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR
   AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION /INCLUDING THE SOUTH/.
   BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE SWD ALONG THE
   PACIFIC COAST...WITH MODELS DIVERGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
   THEREAFTER. AT THE LEAST...A COOL OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT APPEARS
   POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN CA FOR THE D6-7/MON-TUE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THE
   DURATION OF THE EVENT MAY BE LONGER IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF
   DEVELOPING A SLOW-MOVING CUT OFF LOW HOLDS TRUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
   TENDENCIES IN THE PAST OF EJECTING SIMILAR SYSTEMS TOO FAST...THE
   POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF OFFSHORE
   FLOW...THOUGH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES /AND THEREFORE MARGINAL
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES/ COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL WILL NEGATE THE
   NEED FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..DISPIGNA.. 12/26/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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