Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 27, 2012

Updated: Thu Dec 27 19:41:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 27, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 27, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 27, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 27, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 27, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 27, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 27, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Dec 29, 2012 - Sun, Dec 30, 2012 D6Tue, Jan 01, 2013 - Wed, Jan 02, 2013
D4Sun, Dec 30, 2012 - Mon, Dec 31, 2012 D7Wed, Jan 02, 2013 - Thu, Jan 03, 2013
D5Mon, Dec 31, 2012 - Tue, Jan 01, 2013 D8Thu, Jan 03, 2013 - Fri, Jan 04, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 271939
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CST THU DEC 27 2012
   
   VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
   
   A GENERALLY TRANQUIL FIRE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
   AS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MAINTAINS AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND
   PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AN
   UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE S-SEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC
   COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODELS
   DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. IT
   APPEARS THAT AT LEAST A MINIMAL PERIOD OF COOL OFFSHORE FLOW IS
   POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN CA FOR THE D5-6/MON-TUE TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE
   DURATION OF THE EVENT MAY BE LONGER IF THE ECWMF SOLUTION OF A SLOW
   MOVING LOW LATITUDE CLOSED LOW HOLDS TRUE. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
   OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SRN CA...SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPERATURES AND
   SUBSEQUENT MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AS WELL AS RECENT
   RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO ARGUE AGAINST THE INTRODUCTION
   OF FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..DISPIGNA.. 12/27/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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