Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 28, 2012

Updated: Fri Dec 28 21:23:03 UTC 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282122
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 PM CST FRI DEC 28 2012
   
   VALID 301200Z - 051200Z
   
   LATE THIS WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OFF
   THE ATLANTIC COAST. SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
   WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF DEEP DRY AIR ALONG WITH SFC HIGH
   PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON D3/SUN. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE MULTIPLE STREAMS
   BECOME EVIDENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS DEPICTED BY
   DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL LACK OF PHASING
   BETWEEN DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THESE STREAMS SUGGESTS LIMITED
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CYCLOGENESIS...AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A
   SUBSTANTIAL...LARGE-SCALE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   HOWEVER...PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW MAY IMPACT PARTS
   OF SRN CA. BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...A SUBSET OF MODEL GUIDANCE
   MEMBERS DEPICTS AN EVOLUTION TOWARD A QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE WRN STATES...WHILE THE POORLY PHASED...MULTI-STREAM
   PATTERN PERSISTS FARTHER EAST.
   
   ...WRN FL PENINSULA -- D3/SUN...
   OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED SFC ANTICYCLONE. NNELY TO NELY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH
   WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. AND...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
   DEEP DRY AIR...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO
   THE 30S AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
   THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS TO ENSUE -- PERHAPS
   APPROACHING/REACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL
   PROPORTION OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR...AT
   MOST...MARGINALLY CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS. FURTHERMORE...THE
   RELAXATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY MAY
   PREVENT ANY MARGINALLY CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS FROM OVERLAPPING WITH
   CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL DURATION. AS
   SUCH...FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN INTRODUCED.
   
   ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA -- D4/MON THROUGH
   D8/FRI...
   PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHT NELY TO ENELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
   OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE
   DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE IS SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BE LOCALLY ENHANCED AROUND ANY
   CLOSED CYCLONES BEING SLOWLY STEERED ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS AND THE
   ADJACENT E PACIFIC /TO THE S OF A QUASI-STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE/.
   HOWEVER...LARGE VARIATIONS AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
   EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WINDS. FURTHERMORE...RELATIVELY COOL
   TEMPERATURES MAY PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES FROM OCCURRING ON
   ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. ALSO...THE OCCURRENCE OF RECENT
   PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AS
   SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DESIGNATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 12/28/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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