Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 29, 2012

Updated: Sat Dec 29 21:39:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 29, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 29, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 29, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 29, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 29, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 29, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 29, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Mon, Dec 31, 2012 - Tue, Jan 01, 2013 D6Thu, Jan 03, 2013 - Fri, Jan 04, 2013
D4Tue, Jan 01, 2013 - Wed, Jan 02, 2013 D7Fri, Jan 04, 2013 - Sat, Jan 05, 2013
D5Wed, Jan 02, 2013 - Thu, Jan 03, 2013 D8Sat, Jan 05, 2013 - Sun, Jan 06, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 292137
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2012
   
   VALID 311200Z - 061200Z
   
   IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COVER
   THE CONUS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHILE MULTIPLE
   STREAMS BECOME EVIDENT. AS DEPICTED BY DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL
   GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN DISTURBANCES
   TRAVERSING THESE STREAMS SUGGESTS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   CYCLOGENESIS...AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL...
   LARGE-SCALE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
   MODESTLY ENHANCED OFFSHORE FLOW MAY IMPACT PARTS OF SRN CA.
   ALSO...MODESTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT
   PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN NM AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS SWD/SWWD ACROSS
   SWRN TX ON D3/MON.
   
   BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...A SUBSET OF MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS DEPICTS
   AN EVOLUTION TOWARD A QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN
   STATES AND E PACIFIC...WHILE THE POORLY PHASED...MULTI-STREAM
   PATTERN PERSISTS FARTHER E. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...MEDIUM-RANGE
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN TO
   BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE W...WHILE THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
   CONTINUES ACROSS THE E.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN NM...TX SOUTH PLAINS SWD/SWWD ACROSS
   SWRN TX -- D3/MON...
   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL...SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
   ENEWD FROM THE SW STATES TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WHILE
   DEAMPLIFYING WITHIN A ZONE OF CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ENHANCED
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT WLY SFC
   WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MODESTLY ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONCERNS MAY MATERIALIZE...WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
   ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...DESPITE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ACTING TO
   WARM/DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RH VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL
   INTO THE 20S AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 50S.
   ALSO...THE ABSENCE OF HIGHER TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. FURTHERMORE...RECENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOME
   AREAS...INCLUDING THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT
   BEEN INTRODUCED.
   
   ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA -- D3/MON THROUGH
   D7/FRI...
   PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NELY TO ENELY
   WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE STRONGEST
   OF THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON D4/TUE...AS A SFC
   ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
   CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
   PATTERN...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BE
   LOCALLY ENHANCED AROUND ANY CYCLONES BEING SLOWLY STEERED ACROSS THE
   SWRN CONUS AND THE ADJACENT E PACIFIC /TO THE S OF A
   QUASI-STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE/.
   
   HOWEVER...LARGE VARIATIONS AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
   EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A RELATIVELY COOL AIR
   MASS MAY PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE
   THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. ALSO...THE ABSENCE OF HIGHER
   TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF RECENT
   PRECIPITATION...MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AS
   SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DESIGNATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 12/29/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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