Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Mon, Dec 31, 2012 - Tue, Jan 01, 2013 | D6 | Thu, Jan 03, 2013 - Fri, Jan 04, 2013 |
| D4 | Tue, Jan 01, 2013 - Wed, Jan 02, 2013 | D7 | Fri, Jan 04, 2013 - Sat, Jan 05, 2013 |
| D5 | Wed, Jan 02, 2013 - Thu, Jan 03, 2013 | D8 | Sat, Jan 05, 2013 - Sun, Jan 06, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 292137 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2012 VALID 311200Z - 061200Z IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COVER THE CONUS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHILE MULTIPLE STREAMS BECOME EVIDENT. AS DEPICTED BY DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THESE STREAMS SUGGESTS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CYCLOGENESIS...AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL... LARGE-SCALE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MODESTLY ENHANCED OFFSHORE FLOW MAY IMPACT PARTS OF SRN CA. ALSO...MODESTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN NM AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS SWD/SWWD ACROSS SWRN TX ON D3/MON. BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...A SUBSET OF MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS DEPICTS AN EVOLUTION TOWARD A QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN STATES AND E PACIFIC...WHILE THE POORLY PHASED...MULTI-STREAM PATTERN PERSISTS FARTHER E. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE W...WHILE THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE E. ...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN NM...TX SOUTH PLAINS SWD/SWWD ACROSS SWRN TX -- D3/MON... A MID/UPPER-LEVEL...SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ENEWD FROM THE SW STATES TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WHILE DEAMPLIFYING WITHIN A ZONE OF CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT WLY SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MODESTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY MATERIALIZE...WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...DESPITE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ACTING TO WARM/DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RH VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 50S. ALSO...THE ABSENCE OF HIGHER TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FURTHERMORE...RECENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOME AREAS...INCLUDING THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN INTRODUCED. ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA -- D3/MON THROUGH D7/FRI... PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NELY TO ENELY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON D4/TUE...AS A SFC ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BE LOCALLY ENHANCED AROUND ANY CYCLONES BEING SLOWLY STEERED ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS AND THE ADJACENT E PACIFIC /TO THE S OF A QUASI-STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE/. HOWEVER...LARGE VARIATIONS AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS MAY PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. ALSO...THE ABSENCE OF HIGHER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF RECENT PRECIPITATION...MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DESIGNATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME. ..COHEN.. 12/29/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT