Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 30, 2012

Updated: Sun Dec 30 21:19:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 30, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 30, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 30, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 30, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 30, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 30, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 30, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Jan 01, 2013 - Wed, Jan 02, 2013 D6Fri, Jan 04, 2013 - Sat, Jan 05, 2013
D4Wed, Jan 02, 2013 - Thu, Jan 03, 2013 D7Sat, Jan 05, 2013 - Sun, Jan 06, 2013
D5Thu, Jan 03, 2013 - Fri, Jan 04, 2013 D8Sun, Jan 06, 2013 - Mon, Jan 07, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 302117
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CST SUN DEC 30 2012
   
   VALID 011200Z - 071200Z
   
   IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A MULTI-STREAM...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS
   EXPECTED TO COVER THE PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH LATE
   THIS WEEK. AS INDICATED BY DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL
   GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN DISTURBANCES
   TRAVERSING THESE STREAMS SUGGESTS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   CYCLOGENESIS...AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL...
   LARGE-SCALE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FARTHER WEST...MORE OF A
   QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN STATES
   THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF ENHANCED OFFSHORE FLOW MAY IMPACT
   PARTS OF SRN CA. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN TO BECOME MORE
   PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE W...WHILE THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
   ACROSS THE E.
   
   ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA -- D3/TUE THROUGH
   D8/SUN...
   PERIODS OF ENHANCED NELY TO ENELY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
   NEXT WEEKEND. ON D3/TUE INTO D4/WED...THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR...AS A SFC ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE CNTRL GREAT
   BASIN. SUPPORT FOR THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ORIGINATE FROM A ZONE OF
   ENHANCED FLOW ACCOMPANYING A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE BEING SLOWLY STEERED
   ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS /TO THE S OF A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE/ DURING
   THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
   
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT...ESPECIALLY ON D3/TUE AND D4/WED. HOWEVER...VARIATIONS AMONGST
   MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN DETRACT CONFIDENCE IN
   THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MORE THAN SPOTTY/BRIEF INSTANCES OF STRONG
   WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS MAY PREVENT
   CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A
   BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. ALSO...THE ABSENCE OF HIGHER TEMPERATURES...
   ALONG WITH THE RECENT OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION...MAY MITIGATE THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT
   BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE TX BIG BEND REGION TO
   AROUND THE LAREDO AREA -- D3/TUE...
   DRY AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS...SUPPORTING
   AFTERNOON RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S AS
   TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY CURTAIL THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
   WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL BE UNLIKELY ON ANY MORE THAN A
   BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...A
   MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AS
   NNWLY TO NLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH LOCALLY/OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
   GUSTS OCCUR. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT/STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW...CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS
   ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. ACCORDINGLY...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS
   HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.
   
   ..COHEN.. 12/30/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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