Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Wed, Jan 02, 2013 - Thu, Jan 03, 2013 | D6 | Sat, Jan 05, 2013 - Sun, Jan 06, 2013 |
| D4 | Thu, Jan 03, 2013 - Fri, Jan 04, 2013 | D7 | Sun, Jan 06, 2013 - Mon, Jan 07, 2013 |
| D5 | Fri, Jan 04, 2013 - Sat, Jan 05, 2013 | D8 | Mon, Jan 07, 2013 - Tue, Jan 08, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 312042 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012 VALID 021200Z - 081200Z IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A MULTI-STREAM...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COVER THE PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. AS INDICATED BY DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THESE STREAMS SUGGESTS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CYCLOGENESIS...AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL... LARGE-SCALE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FARTHER WEST...MORE OF A QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN STATES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE W...WHILE THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE E. HOWEVER...LARGE DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS GREATLY LIMITS PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF ENHANCED OFFSHORE FLOW MAY IMPACT PARTS OF SRN CA THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA -- D3/WED THROUGH D7/SUN... PERIODS OF ENHANCED NELY TO ELY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. ON D3/WED...THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR...AS A SFC ANTICYCLONE COVERS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN. THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ON D3/WED. HOWEVER...VARIATIONS AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN DETRACT CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MORE THAN SPOTTY/BRIEF INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS MAY PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. ALSO...THE ABSENCE OF HIGHER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE RECENT OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION...MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. ..COHEN.. 12/31/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT