Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 31, 2012

Updated: Mon Dec 31 20:43:03 UTC 2012

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 31, 2012
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 31, 2012

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 31, 2012

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 31, 2012

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 31, 2012

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 31, 2012

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 31, 2012

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Jan 02, 2013 - Thu, Jan 03, 2013 D6Sat, Jan 05, 2013 - Sun, Jan 06, 2013
D4Thu, Jan 03, 2013 - Fri, Jan 04, 2013 D7Sun, Jan 06, 2013 - Mon, Jan 07, 2013
D5Fri, Jan 04, 2013 - Sat, Jan 05, 2013 D8Mon, Jan 07, 2013 - Tue, Jan 08, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 312042
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012
   
   VALID 021200Z - 081200Z
   
   IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A MULTI-STREAM...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS
   EXPECTED TO COVER THE PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH LATE
   THIS WEEK. AS INDICATED BY DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL
   GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN DISTURBANCES
   TRAVERSING THESE STREAMS SUGGESTS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   CYCLOGENESIS...AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL...
   LARGE-SCALE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FARTHER WEST...MORE OF A
   QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN STATES
   THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
   
   FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM-RANGE
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN TO
   BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE W...WHILE THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
   CONTINUES ACROSS THE E. HOWEVER...LARGE DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL
   SOLUTIONS GREATLY LIMITS PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE
   PATTERN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF
   ENHANCED OFFSHORE FLOW MAY IMPACT PARTS OF SRN CA THROUGH THIS
   UPCOMING WEEKEND.
   
   ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA -- D3/WED THROUGH
   D7/SUN...
   PERIODS OF ENHANCED NELY TO ELY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
   UPCOMING WEEKEND. ON D3/WED...THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR...AS A SFC ANTICYCLONE COVERS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
   GREAT BASIN. THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT...ESPECIALLY ON D3/WED. HOWEVER...VARIATIONS AMONGST MODEL
   SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN DETRACT CONFIDENCE IN THE
   OCCURRENCE OF ANY MORE THAN SPOTTY/BRIEF INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS.
   FURTHERMORE...A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS MAY PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW
   RH VALUES FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.
   ALSO...THE ABSENCE OF HIGHER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE RECENT
   OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION...MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 12/31/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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