Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Thu, Jan 03, 2013 - Fri, Jan 04, 2013 | D6 | Sun, Jan 06, 2013 - Mon, Jan 07, 2013 |
| D4 | Fri, Jan 04, 2013 - Sat, Jan 05, 2013 | D7 | Mon, Jan 07, 2013 - Tue, Jan 08, 2013 |
| D5 | Sat, Jan 05, 2013 - Sun, Jan 06, 2013 | D8 | Tue, Jan 08, 2013 - Wed, Jan 09, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 012113 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CST TUE JAN 01 2013 VALID 031200Z - 091200Z THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...A MULTI-STREAM...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COVER THE PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...WHILE MORE OF A QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN COVERS PARTS OF THE WRN STATES. FOR THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE W...WHILE THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE E. PERIODS OF ENHANCED SFC WINDS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF SRN CA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A DISTINCT NRN STREAM IS FORECAST TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINANT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE A CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM POTENTIALLY BEGINS EMERGING OVER THE SWRN CONUS FROM THE E PACIFIC. HOWEVER...LARGE DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS GREATLY LIMITS PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA -- D3/THU THROUGH D6/SUN... PERIODS OF ENHANCED NELY TO ELY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT OFFER ANY STRONG-WIND THREAT INDICATE ONLY MARGINAL/BRIEF/SPOTTY INSTANCES OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT / STRONGER DEEP FLOW. THE PRESENCE OF DEEP DRY AIR MAY SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES...AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING IN SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF UNFAVORABLE FUELS WITH THE RECENT OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. ..COHEN.. 01/01/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT