Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 1, 2013

Updated: Tue Jan 1 21:15:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Jan 03, 2013 - Fri, Jan 04, 2013 D6Sun, Jan 06, 2013 - Mon, Jan 07, 2013
D4Fri, Jan 04, 2013 - Sat, Jan 05, 2013 D7Mon, Jan 07, 2013 - Tue, Jan 08, 2013
D5Sat, Jan 05, 2013 - Sun, Jan 06, 2013 D8Tue, Jan 08, 2013 - Wed, Jan 09, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 012113
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 PM CST TUE JAN 01 2013
   
   VALID 031200Z - 091200Z
   
   THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...A MULTI-STREAM...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS
   EXPECTED TO COVER THE PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE
   MID/UPPER LEVELS...WHILE MORE OF A QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN COVERS
   PARTS OF THE WRN STATES. FOR THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS THAT THE QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
   PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE W...WHILE THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
   ACROSS THE E. PERIODS OF ENHANCED SFC WINDS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF SRN
   CA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   ARE NOT EXPECTED.
   
   A DISTINCT NRN STREAM IS FORECAST TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
   ACROSS THE NRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE A CYCLONE EMBEDDED
   WITHIN THE SRN STREAM POTENTIALLY BEGINS EMERGING OVER THE SWRN
   CONUS FROM THE E PACIFIC. HOWEVER...LARGE DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL
   SOLUTIONS GREATLY LIMITS PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE OVERALL
   PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
   
   ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA -- D3/THU THROUGH
   D6/SUN...
   PERIODS OF ENHANCED NELY TO ELY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
   WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT OFFER ANY STRONG-WIND THREAT
   INDICATE ONLY MARGINAL/BRIEF/SPOTTY INSTANCES OF CRITICALLY STRONG
   WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT / STRONGER
   DEEP FLOW. THE PRESENCE OF DEEP DRY AIR MAY SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW
   RH VALUES...AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING IN SOME LOCATIONS.
   HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF UNFAVORABLE FUELS WITH THE RECENT
   OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 01/01/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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