Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 2, 2013

Updated: Wed Jan 2 20:52:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Jan 04, 2013 - Sat, Jan 05, 2013 D6Mon, Jan 07, 2013 - Tue, Jan 08, 2013
D4Sat, Jan 05, 2013 - Sun, Jan 06, 2013 D7Tue, Jan 08, 2013 - Wed, Jan 09, 2013
D5Sun, Jan 06, 2013 - Mon, Jan 07, 2013 D8Wed, Jan 09, 2013 - Thu, Jan 10, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022050
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CST WED JAN 02 2013
   
   VALID 041200Z - 101200Z
   
   FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
   CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   PROGRESSIVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN STATES...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE
   PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE E. SFC WINDS MAY PERIODICALLY BE
   ENHANCED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
   
   A DISTINCT NRN STREAM IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
   ACROSS THE NRN CONUS NEXT WEEK...WHILE A CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
   SRN STREAM POTENTIALLY EMERGES OVER THE SWRN CONUS FROM THE E
   PACIFIC. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS
   CYCLONE TO TRACK EWD ACROSS THE S-CNTRL CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
   WEEK. WHILE ENHANCED DEEP FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE CYCLONE MAY SUPPORT
   AREAS OF STRONG SFC WINDS ACROSS THE SWRN/S-CNTRL CONUS...LARGE
   DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS GREATLY LIMITS PREDICTABILITY
   REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT
   WEEK. FURTHERMORE...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES...ABOVE-CRITICAL RH
   VALUES...AND AREAS OF ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION WITH UNFAVORABLE
   FUELS MAY MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT WHERE STRONG SFC WINDS
   OCCUR.
   
   ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA -- D3/FRI THROUGH
   D5/SUN...
   PERIODS OF ENHANCED NELY TO ELY SFC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
   THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT OFFER ANY STRONG-WIND
   THREAT INDICATE ONLY MARGINAL/BRIEF/SPOTTY INSTANCES OF CRITICALLY
   STRONG WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE 
   GRADIENT / STRONGER DEEP FLOW. THE PRESENCE OF DEEP DRY AIR MAY
   SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES...AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING
   IN SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF UNFAVORABLE FUELS WITH
   THE RECENT OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN
   INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 01/02/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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