Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Sat, Jan 05, 2013 - Sun, Jan 06, 2013 | D6 | Tue, Jan 08, 2013 - Wed, Jan 09, 2013 |
| D4 | Sun, Jan 06, 2013 - Mon, Jan 07, 2013 | D7 | Wed, Jan 09, 2013 - Thu, Jan 10, 2013 |
| D5 | Mon, Jan 07, 2013 - Tue, Jan 08, 2013 | D8 | Thu, Jan 10, 2013 - Fri, Jan 11, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 032116 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CST THU JAN 03 2013 VALID 051200Z - 111200Z FOR THIS WEEKEND...A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT OVER THE CONUS...AS A WRN-CONUS RIDGE FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...PERIODS OF ENHANCED NELY TO ELY SFC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON D3/SAT. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ARE UNLIKELY OWING TO THE ABSENCE OF A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT / STRONGER DEEP FLOW. FURTHERMORE...THE PRESENCE OF UNFAVORABLE FUELS WITH THE RECENT OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FOR NEXT WEEK...LARGE DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS GREATLY LIMITS PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN COVERING THE CONUS. REGARDLESS...THE CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS THAT A CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN/S-CNTRL CONUS...PERHAPS FOLLOWED BY A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND E PACIFIC. ENHANCED DEEP FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE CYCLONE AND THE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF STRONG SFC WINDS ACROSS THE SWRN/S-CNTRL CONUS. ALSO...SUBSIDENT FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE CYCLONE CENTER MAY SUPPORT SFC RIDGING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN. THE CORRESPONDING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA FOR D6/TUE THROUGH D8/THU. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...ABOVE-CRITICAL RH VALUES...AND/OR AREAS OF ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION WITH UNFAVORABLE FUELS MAY MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT WHERE STRONG SFC WINDS OCCUR. AND...GIVEN THE LACK OF PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED. ..COHEN.. 01/03/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT