Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 3, 2013

Updated: Thu Jan 3 21:18:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 3, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 3, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 3, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 3, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 3, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 3, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 3, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Jan 05, 2013 - Sun, Jan 06, 2013 D6Tue, Jan 08, 2013 - Wed, Jan 09, 2013
D4Sun, Jan 06, 2013 - Mon, Jan 07, 2013 D7Wed, Jan 09, 2013 - Thu, Jan 10, 2013
D5Mon, Jan 07, 2013 - Tue, Jan 08, 2013 D8Thu, Jan 10, 2013 - Fri, Jan 11, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032116
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 PM CST THU JAN 03 2013
   
   VALID 051200Z - 111200Z
   
   FOR THIS WEEKEND...A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
   TO BE PRESENT OVER THE CONUS...AS A WRN-CONUS RIDGE FLATTENS IN
   RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. ACROSS THE
   COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...PERIODS OF
   ENHANCED NELY TO ELY SFC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON D3/SAT.
   HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ARE UNLIKELY OWING TO THE ABSENCE OF A
   TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT / STRONGER DEEP FLOW.
   FURTHERMORE...THE PRESENCE OF UNFAVORABLE FUELS WITH THE RECENT
   OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   FOR NEXT WEEK...LARGE DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS GREATLY
   LIMITS PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN COVERING THE
   CONUS. REGARDLESS...THE CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
   EARLY/MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS THAT A CYCLONE WILL
   PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN/S-CNTRL CONUS...PERHAPS
   FOLLOWED BY A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND E PACIFIC.
   ENHANCED DEEP FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE CYCLONE AND THE TROUGH MAY
   SUPPORT AREAS OF STRONG SFC WINDS ACROSS THE SWRN/S-CNTRL CONUS.
   ALSO...SUBSIDENT FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE CYCLONE CENTER MAY SUPPORT SFC
   RIDGING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN. THE CORRESPONDING SFC
   PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED OFFSHORE FLOW
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA FOR D6/TUE THROUGH D8/THU.
   HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...ABOVE-CRITICAL RH
   VALUES...AND/OR AREAS OF ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION WITH UNFAVORABLE
   FUELS MAY MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT WHERE STRONG SFC WINDS
   OCCUR. AND...GIVEN THE LACK OF PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE
   EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
   HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.
   
   ..COHEN.. 01/03/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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