Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 4, 2013

Updated: Fri Jan 4 21:33:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sun, Jan 06, 2013 - Mon, Jan 07, 2013 D6Wed, Jan 09, 2013 - Thu, Jan 10, 2013
D4Mon, Jan 07, 2013 - Tue, Jan 08, 2013 D7Thu, Jan 10, 2013 - Fri, Jan 11, 2013
D5Tue, Jan 08, 2013 - Wed, Jan 09, 2013 D8Fri, Jan 11, 2013 - Sat, Jan 12, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042132
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CST FRI JAN 04 2013
   
   VALID 061200Z - 121200Z
   
   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL
   CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CONUS...WITH LITTLE
   POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. A LARGE
   CLOSED DEEP-LAYER LOW WILL PROGRESS EWD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
   ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK...POTENTIALLY
   RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK. IN THE
   WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
   OF SRN CA ON TUE/D5 AND WED/D6...BUT COOL CONDITIONS AND ANTECEDENT
   PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD...MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
   TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH A BROAD BELT OF STRONG
   SWLYS BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES...AND MAY RESULT IN INCREASING SFC WINDS ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FINER-SCALE DETAILS...ALONG
   WITH THE AMOUNT OF POSSIBLE ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION...PRECLUDE ANY
   HIGHLIGHTS ATTM.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 01/04/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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