Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 5, 2013

Updated: Sat Jan 5 20:14:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Mon, Jan 07, 2013 - Tue, Jan 08, 2013 D6Thu, Jan 10, 2013 - Fri, Jan 11, 2013
D4Tue, Jan 08, 2013 - Wed, Jan 09, 2013 D7Fri, Jan 11, 2013 - Sat, Jan 12, 2013
D5Wed, Jan 09, 2013 - Thu, Jan 10, 2013 D8Sat, Jan 12, 2013 - Sun, Jan 13, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052012
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CST SAT JAN 05 2013
   
   VALID 071200Z - 131200Z
   
   A DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW WILL DIG SEWD AND BECOME DISJOINTED FROM THE
   POLAR JET STREAM...WHICH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NRN LATITUDES
   OF THE CONUS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
   SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS
   BY MID-WEEK. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE
   IN THE SPEED/TRACK OF THIS LOW...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
   WETTING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...AND EVEN PARTS OF FAR W
   TX AND ERN NM. ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE
   IN THE WEEK ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN
   DEEP-LAYER SWLYS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND
   COULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER PARTS OF NM
   AND W TX ON FRI/D7 AND SAT/D8. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
   UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR WET/COOL PRECEDING CONDITIONS...NO
   PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED ATTM.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 01/05/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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