Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 6, 2013

Updated: Sun Jan 6 20:11:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Jan 08, 2013 - Wed, Jan 09, 2013 D6Fri, Jan 11, 2013 - Sat, Jan 12, 2013
D4Wed, Jan 09, 2013 - Thu, Jan 10, 2013 D7Sat, Jan 12, 2013 - Sun, Jan 13, 2013
D5Thu, Jan 10, 2013 - Fri, Jan 11, 2013 D8Sun, Jan 13, 2013 - Mon, Jan 14, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062009
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 PM CST SUN JAN 06 2013
   
   VALID 081200Z - 141200Z
   
   THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL INITIALLY BE SHUNTED NWD ACROSS THE NRN
   HALF OF THE CONUS...WHILE A DEEP-LAYER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVES EWD
   THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST/BIG BEND REGION OF TX INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
   ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK/SPEED OF THE LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT
   UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL
   DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS MID-WEEK...PERHAPS AS FAR W AS
   ERN NM AND THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE
   CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND EJECT NEWD...WHILE A DEEP/COLD
   UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   SWLYS WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF
   THE TROUGH...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN
   EVOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY
   MATERIALIZE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON FRI/D6...BUT COOL
   CONDITIONS...POSSIBLE PRECEDING RAINFALL...AND HIGH FORECAST
   UNCERTAINTY WILL PRECLUDE ANY PROBABILITIES FROM BEING INTRODUCED
   ATTM.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 01/06/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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