Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 8, 2013

Updated: Tue Jan 8 20:10:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 8, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 8, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 8, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 8, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 8, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 8, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 8, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Jan 10, 2013 - Fri, Jan 11, 2013 D6Sun, Jan 13, 2013 - Mon, Jan 14, 2013
D4Fri, Jan 11, 2013 - Sat, Jan 12, 2013 D7Mon, Jan 14, 2013 - Tue, Jan 15, 2013
D5Sat, Jan 12, 2013 - Sun, Jan 13, 2013 D8Tue, Jan 15, 2013 - Wed, Jan 16, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 082008
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2013
   
   VALID 101200Z - 161200Z
   
   A SRN PLAINS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
   EJECT NEWD...AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
   OVER THE WRN CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...A BELT OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   SWLYS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT
   LAKES...AND MAY FAVOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON FRI/D4...BUT ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION AND
   COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS. THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL STAGNATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
   WEEK...CONTINUING TO FAVOR A TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH SEVERAL
   EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD. WITHIN THIS PATTERN...A
   PERSISTENT AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
   GREAT BASIN...AND MAY RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
   SRN CA. HOWEVER...EXPECTED COOL CONDITIONS PRECLUDE ANY INTRODUCTION
   OF PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 01/08/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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