Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Fri, Jan 11, 2013 - Sat, Jan 12, 2013 | D6 | Mon, Jan 14, 2013 - Tue, Jan 15, 2013 |
| D4 | Sat, Jan 12, 2013 - Sun, Jan 13, 2013 | D7 | Tue, Jan 15, 2013 - Wed, Jan 16, 2013 |
| D5 | Sun, Jan 13, 2013 - Mon, Jan 14, 2013 | D8 | Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - Thu, Jan 17, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 092111 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CST WED JAN 09 2013 VALID 111200Z - 171200Z A DEEP...LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE WRN HALF OF CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE NEWD FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE OF DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON FRI/D3...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES...MARGINALLY LOW RH...AND WIDESPREAD ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...FAVORING MULTIPLE DAYS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS OVER SRN CA BEGINNING SAT/D4. WITH SOME FUEL MOISTENING POSSIBLE FROM RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THU/D2...AND COOL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO PERSIST...THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL APPEARS LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A TRANSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW...AND MAY RESULT IN A WARMING TREND OVER SRN CA ON WED/D8 WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO REMAINS HIGH. ..ROGERS.. 01/09/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT