Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 9, 2013

Updated: Wed Jan 9 21:13:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 9, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 9, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 9, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 9, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 9, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 9, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 9, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Jan 11, 2013 - Sat, Jan 12, 2013 D6Mon, Jan 14, 2013 - Tue, Jan 15, 2013
D4Sat, Jan 12, 2013 - Sun, Jan 13, 2013 D7Tue, Jan 15, 2013 - Wed, Jan 16, 2013
D5Sun, Jan 13, 2013 - Mon, Jan 14, 2013 D8Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - Thu, Jan 17, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092111
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CST WED JAN 09 2013
   
   VALID 111200Z - 171200Z
   
   A DEEP...LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE WRN HALF OF CONUS
   WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
   EMBEDDED SPEED MAX WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE NEWD FRI...WITH AN
   ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE
   RESULTANT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE OF DEEP-LAYER
   WINDS WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS ON FRI/D3...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES...MARGINALLY LOW RH...AND
   WIDESPREAD ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS. 
   
   MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN...FAVORING MULTIPLE DAYS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
   OVER SRN CA BEGINNING SAT/D4. WITH SOME FUEL MOISTENING POSSIBLE
   FROM RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THU/D2...AND COOL TEMPERATURES
   FORECAST TO PERSIST...THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS STILL APPEARS LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BOTH
   THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A TRANSITION OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW...AND MAY RESULT IN A WARMING TREND OVER
   SRN CA ON WED/D8 WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH
   THIS SCENARIO REMAINS HIGH.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 01/09/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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