Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 10, 2013

Updated: Thu Jan 10 20:20:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 10, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 10, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 10, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 10, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 10, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 10, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 10, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Jan 12, 2013 - Sun, Jan 13, 2013 D6Tue, Jan 15, 2013 - Wed, Jan 16, 2013
D4Sun, Jan 13, 2013 - Mon, Jan 14, 2013 D7Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - Thu, Jan 17, 2013
D5Mon, Jan 14, 2013 - Tue, Jan 15, 2013 D8Thu, Jan 17, 2013 - Fri, Jan 18, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102019
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013
   
   VALID 121200Z - 181200Z
   
   A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
   WRN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE/D6. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR NLY FLOW
   ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS...WHILE PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT
   RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
   MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN
   MULTIPLE DAYS OF OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SRN CA...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES
   AND MARGINAL FUEL DRYNESS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BY MID-WEEK WITH
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL FORECAST SCENARIOS...SOME CONSISTENCY IS SHOWN IN
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE W
   COAST...AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE CNTRL
   CONUS. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO CA...WHILE WEAK TO
   MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ON WED/D7.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 01/10/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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