Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 11, 2013

Updated: Fri Jan 11 20:24:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sun, Jan 13, 2013 - Mon, Jan 14, 2013 D6Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - Thu, Jan 17, 2013
D4Mon, Jan 14, 2013 - Tue, Jan 15, 2013 D7Thu, Jan 17, 2013 - Fri, Jan 18, 2013
D5Tue, Jan 15, 2013 - Wed, Jan 16, 2013 D8Fri, Jan 18, 2013 - Sat, Jan 19, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112022
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2013
   
   VALID 131200Z - 191200Z
   
   A LARGE...NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
   CONUS ON D3/SUN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
   WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PROGRESS FROM
   THE CNTRL PLAINS NEWD INTO SRN QC. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS
   D3/SUN AND D4/MON. AS A RESULT...COOL CONDITIONS AND SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SERN CONUS.
   
   BEGINNING ON D5/TUE...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
   TRANSITION EWD AS A LARGE ERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD. AS
   THIS OCCURS...AN AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT
   BASIN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS CA WILL
   GRADUALLY WARM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
   DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON D6/WED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN CA. THESE WARM
   TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR OFFSHORE WINDS
   MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FROM D6/WED THROUGH THE END OF
   THE PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO HIGH TO INTRODUCE ANY MARGINAL
   OR CRITICAL AREAS AT THE MOMENT BUT UPGRADES MAY BE NEEDED IN
   SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 01/11/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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