Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 12, 2013

Updated: Sat Jan 12 20:37:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 12, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 12, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 12, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 12, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 12, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 12, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 12, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Mon, Jan 14, 2013 - Tue, Jan 15, 2013 D6Thu, Jan 17, 2013 - Fri, Jan 18, 2013
D4Tue, Jan 15, 2013 - Wed, Jan 16, 2013 D7Fri, Jan 18, 2013 - Sat, Jan 19, 2013
D5Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - Thu, Jan 17, 2013 D8Sat, Jan 19, 2013 - Sun, Jan 20, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122036
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013
   
   VALID 141200Z - 201200Z
   
   A LARGE...POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
   CONUS ON D3/MON...MAKING ONLY SLIGHT EWD PROGRESS. THE PATTERN WILL
   BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE ON D4/TUE AS A LARGE ERN PACIFIC UPPER
   RIDGE BUILDS EWD AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD IN RESPONSE. AS
   THIS RIDGE BUILDS EWD...AN AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE
   CNTRL GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS
   CA WILL GRADUALLY WARM. THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY ON
   D6/THU WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW LIMITING THE
   FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
    
   ...SRN CA...
   THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS OFFSHORE FLOW IN SRN CA ON D3/MON THROUGH
   AT LEAST D5/WED. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO COOL FOR ANY
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON D3/MON AND D4/TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
   QUITE A BIT ON D5/WED WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE OFFSHORE
   WINDS. THEREAFTER...WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. FUEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES
   UNFAVORABLE FUELS...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTED AREAS.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 01/12/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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