Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Tue, Jan 15, 2013 - Wed, Jan 16, 2013 | D6 | Fri, Jan 18, 2013 - Sat, Jan 19, 2013 |
| D4 | Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - Thu, Jan 17, 2013 | D7 | Sat, Jan 19, 2013 - Sun, Jan 20, 2013 |
| D5 | Thu, Jan 17, 2013 - Fri, Jan 18, 2013 | D8 | Sun, Jan 20, 2013 - Mon, Jan 21, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 132054 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013 VALID 151200Z - 211200Z UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS REMAINED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EWD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE ERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EWD. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL AID IN THE STRENGTHENING OF A SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ACROSS CA. AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM D4/WED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD...AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN ITS SRN PORTION OVER W TX ON D4/WED BUT COOL TEMPERATURES AND MOIST FUELS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON D4/WED AND D5/THU WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. ...D5/WED - D8/SUN: SRN CA... WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AMIDST ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES D5/WED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES D5/WED IS THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY AREAS. AFTER D5/WED...MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRIMARILY RESULTING FROM THE FORECAST VARIANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF SFC TROUGH OFF THE SRN CA COAST. ..MOSIER.. 01/13/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT