Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 13, 2013

Updated: Sun Jan 13 20:55:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Jan 15, 2013 - Wed, Jan 16, 2013 D6Fri, Jan 18, 2013 - Sat, Jan 19, 2013
D4Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - Thu, Jan 17, 2013 D7Sat, Jan 19, 2013 - Sun, Jan 20, 2013
D5Thu, Jan 17, 2013 - Fri, Jan 18, 2013 D8Sun, Jan 20, 2013 - Mon, Jan 21, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132054
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013
   
   VALID 151200Z - 211200Z
   
   UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS THE LARGE UPPER
   TROUGH WHICH HAS REMAINED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS FOR THE PAST FEW
   DAYS BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EWD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE ERN PACIFIC
   UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EWD. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL AID IN THE
   STRENGTHENING OF A SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH IS EXPECTED
   TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO
   ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ACROSS CA. AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE
   TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM D4/WED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD...AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   WITHIN ITS SRN PORTION OVER W TX ON D4/WED BUT COOL TEMPERATURES AND
   MOIST FUELS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...A
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PORTION
   OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON D4/WED AND D5/THU WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND
   HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE.  
   
   ...D5/WED - D8/SUN: SRN CA...
   WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
   MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AMIDST ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES D5/WED
   THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES D5/WED IS
   THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT
   CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY AREAS. AFTER D5/WED...MODEL
   GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT...PRIMARILY RESULTING FROM THE FORECAST VARIANCE REGARDING
   THE STRENGTH OF SFC TROUGH OFF THE SRN CA COAST.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 01/13/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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