Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 14, 2013

Updated: Mon Jan 14 20:19:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - Thu, Jan 17, 2013 D6Sat, Jan 19, 2013 - Sun, Jan 20, 2013
D4Thu, Jan 17, 2013 - Fri, Jan 18, 2013 D7Sun, Jan 20, 2013 - Mon, Jan 21, 2013
D5Fri, Jan 18, 2013 - Sat, Jan 19, 2013 D8Mon, Jan 21, 2013 - Tue, Jan 22, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142017
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013
   
   VALID 161200Z - 221200Z
   
   THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS COVERED MUCH OF THE CONUS FOR
   THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SHIFT EWD ON D3/WED...IN RESPONSE TO AN ERN
   PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EWD. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
   HIGH SFC PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN AND CNTRL CONUS THROUGHOUT
   MOST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH SFC PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
   IS EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY PERSISTENT...LEADING TO A WARMING
   TREND OVER MUCH THE WRN CONUS. HUDSON BAY LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   LARGELY IN PLACE WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERING ALL BUT THE
   SRN THIRD OF ERN NORTH AMERICA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
   
   OVERALL...THE PATTERN FAVORS COOL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL SRN CA DUE TO CONTINUED
   WARMING AND DRYING AND OFFSHORE WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
   STRENGTH OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT /AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF THE
   OFFSHORE WINDS/ AS WELL AS MARGINAL FUELS PRECLUDE ANY MARGINAL OR
   CRITICAL DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 01/14/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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